Matchup Machine

Nolan Jones

Worst 8% of matchups for Blake Snell

Blake Snell

Worst 21% of matchups for Nolan Jones

Leans in favor of Jones

Model Prediction
Prediction	4.0%	3.3%	8.8%	16.9%	35.8%
MLB (+/-)	+1.2	-0.9	-5.1	+7.2	+10.6
Jones	-0.5	-1.2	-3.0	+5.0	+5.8
Snell	+1.4	-0.2	-2.4	+5.1	+4.3

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

4.0%

3.3%

8.8%

16.9%

35.8%

MLB (+/-)

+1.2

-0.9

-5.1

+7.2

+10.6

Jones

-0.5

-1.2

-3.0

+5.0

+5.8

Snell

+1.4

-0.2

-2.4

+5.1

+4.3

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	5	3	0	0	0	0	1	2	.000
Expected From Contact →			0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00			.001

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Flyout				100%
2023-09-19	Walk
2023-09-19	Walk
2023-06-11	Strikeout
2023-06-11	Groundout

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	41%	73	LHB vs LHP	82	18%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

41%

LHB vs LHP

18%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
	41%	43	Fastball	96	48%	⭐
	17%	92	Breaking	108	33%
⭐	13%	107	Offspeed	47	19%
			------------------
	42%	27	Four-Seam FB	76	48%	⭐
	37%	62	Curveball	111	20%	⭐
⭐⭐	60%	111	Changeup	44	19%
	44%	97	Slider	59	13%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

41%

Fastball

48%

⭐

17%

Breaking

108

33%

⭐

13%

107

Offspeed

19%

------------------

42%

Four-Seam FB

48%

⭐

37%

Curveball

111

20%

⭐

⭐⭐

60%

111

Changeup

19%

44%

Slider

13%

Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
46%	68	Away / Glove Side	83	12%
63%	106	Bottom of zone	125	12%
60%	5	Top of zone	92	7%	⭐⭐
54%	-6	Middle	125	6%	⭐⭐
68%	17	In / Arm Side	87	5%	⭐⭐

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

46%

Away / Glove Side

12%

63%

106

Bottom of zone

125

12%

60%

Top of zone

⭐⭐

54%

-6

Middle

125

⭐⭐

68%

In / Arm Side

⭐⭐

Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
40%	101	Below the zone	78	48%
24%	67	Away / Glove Side	45	44%
13%	57	Above the zone	49	19%
34%	14	In / Arm Side	19	9%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

40%

101

Below the zone

48%

24%

Away / Glove Side

44%

13%

Above the zone

19%

34%

In / Arm Side

	Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
	43%	100	Batter Ahead	67	32%
	57%	79	2 Strikes	119	29%
	49%	69	Batter Behind	125	26%	⭐
	24%	64	First Pitch	101	24%
⭐	51%	119	3 Balls	76	12%
	63%	111	Full Count	80	7%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

43%

100

Batter Ahead

32%

57%

2 Strikes

119

29%

49%

Batter Behind

125

26%

⭐

24%

First Pitch

101

24%

⭐

51%

119

3 Balls

12%

63%

111

Full Count