Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Miguel Amaya

matchup for Luis Severino

359th out of 436 (Worst 18%)

Luis Severino

matchup for Miguel Amaya

405th out of 567 (Worst 29%)

Moderate advantage for Amaya

Miguel Amaya has a 30.6% chance of reaching base vs Luis Severino, which is 1.5% lower than Amaya's typical expectations, and 0.5% higher than batters facing Severino.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.6%	24.4%	2.3%	5.7%	16.5%	6.1%	17.9%
Amaya	-1.5	-0.8	-0.3	-0.4	-0.1	-0.8	-0.7
Severino	+0.5	+3.1	-0.2	+1.6	+1.7	-2.7	-5.3

Miguel Amaya is slightly better vs right-handed pitching. Luis Severino is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Amaya has an A+ grade vs this particular release point.

Luis Severino throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Miguel Amaya has an A grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

44%

Slider (R)

27%

Changeup (R)

14%

Sinker (R)

Cutter (R)

14% of Luis Severino's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Miguel Amaya has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 14%

+3%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Weak Challenge 8%

Likely Ball 19%

-1%

Non-Competitive 10%

-3%

Meatball 3%

-3%

27% of Luis Severino's pitches are classified as Very Fast Velocity, which is 19% higher than the MLB average. Miguel Amaya hasn't faced this type of pitch enough to assign a grade.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Very Fast Velo 27%

+19%

Medium Break 36%

+16%

Medium Ride 24%

+10%

11.3% of Miguel Amaya's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 5.6% lower than the league average. Luis Severino strikes out 16.2% of the batters he faces, which is 0.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Strikeout -5.6% +0.9% 5%

Walk -1.4% -1.1% 37%

In Play +6.9% +0.2% 39%

On Base +0.9% -0.9% 31%

Hit +2.2% +0.2% 14%

Single +1.1% +0.2% 13%

2B / 3B +1.4% +0.4% 3%

Home Run -0.3% -0.5%

32.5% of Miguel Amaya's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 1.9% lower than the league average. Luis Severino induces Standard Grounders at a 35.9% rate, which is 1.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +2.5% +0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder -1.9% +1.5% 7%

Hard Grounder -1.3% -0.2% 14%

Low Screamer +1.3% +3.2% 9%

Rising Liner +0.8% -0.3% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.5% -0.4% 3%

Likely Homer +0.1% -1.3% 1%

No Doubter -1.0% -0.5% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.1% -1.4% 3%

Pop up +0.0% -0.7%

21.9% of Miguel Amaya's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.4% lower than the league average. 23.8% of batted balls allowed by Luis Severino are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +1.8% +2.0% 21%

75 to 86 mph 0.0% +0.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph +5.9% -3.8% 19%

94 to 99 mph -5.4% +1.5% 24%

Above 100 mph -2.4% -0.5%

10.8% of Miguel Amaya's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.6% lower than the league average. 10.1% of batted balls allowed by Luis Severino are hit at this angle, which is 1.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +3.6% +1.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.8% +0.3% 8%

1 to 6° -0.3% -0.3% 18%

7 to 18° -2.4% +1.5% 15%

19 to 28° +2.1% -0.5% 11%

29 to 38° -0.6% -1.3% 7%

39 to 50° -2.0% -0.7% 8%

Above 50° +0.4% -0.2%

Miguel Amaya has 2 plate appearances against Luis Severino in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 2 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	2	1	0	0	1	1	0	0.500
Expected From Contact →			0.16	0.00	0.01	0.15			0.080

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-06-23	Single			15%	84%
2024-06-23	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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