matchup for Seth Lugo
matchup for Juan Soto
10
Juan Soto has a 44.6% chance of reaching base vs Seth Lugo, which is 2.8% higher than Soto's typical expectations, and 12.2% higher than batters facing Lugo.
| Reach | Hit | HR | 2B / 3B | 1B | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction | 44.6% | 24.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 15.7% | 20.1% | 18.2% |
| Soto | +2.8 | +2.9 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +2.5 | -0.1 | -1.0 |
| Lugo | +12.2 | +0.6 | +0.8 | -0.1 | -0.2 | +11.6 | -6.7 |
Juan Soto is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Seth Lugo is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Soto has an A grade vs this particular release point.
Seth Lugo throws a 4-seam fastball 29% of the time. Juan Soto has an A+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers
Pitch Type
% of Arsenal
4-Seam (R)
29%
Curve (R)
28%
Sinker (R)
17%
Slider (R)
13%
Changeup (R)
6%
10.2% of Juan Soto's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 7.4% lower than the league average. Seth Lugo strikes out 16.5% of the batters he faces, which is 0.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.
17%
Strikeout
-7.4%
+0.8%
0%
Walk
+12.4%
-2.3%
42%
In Play
-5.1%
+1.4%
39%
On Base
+11.8%
-0.4%
31%
Hit
-0.6%
+1.9%
14%
Single
-2.8%
+0.7%
13%
2B / 3B
-2.3%
+1.1%
3%
Home Run
+4.5%
+0.1%
Juan Soto has 15 plate appearances against Seth Lugo in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 12 with 3 walks
| PA | AB | H | HR | 2/3B | 1B | K | BB | Avg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 15 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.167 |
| Expected From Contact → | 3.23 | 1.12 | 0.56 | 1.55 | 0.269 | ||||
| Expected From Contact | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Outcome | HR | 2/3B | 1B | Out |
| 2024-10-09 | Sac Fly | 3% | 2% | 95% | |
| 2024-10-09 | Flyout | 68% | 3% | 30% | |
| 2024-10-09 | Walk | ||||
| 2024-09-10 | Strikeout | ||||
| 2024-09-10 | Groundout | 2% | 97% | ||
| 2024-09-10 | Flyout | 42% | 35% | 22% | |
| 2024-06-10 | Groundout | 13% | 3% | 84% | |
| 2024-06-10 | Single | 41% | 58% | ||
| 2024-06-10 | Groundout | 10% | 90% | ||
| 2024-06-10 | Walk | ||||
| 2022-10-09 | Single | 21% | 79% | ||
| 2022-10-07 | Groundout | 35% | 65% | ||
| 2022-06-01 | Groundout | 10% | 90% | ||
| 2022-04-08 | Forceout | 2% | 33% | 66% | |
| 2022-04-07 | Walk | ||||
Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.
Weak Challenge
Mid Challenge
Edge Painter
Strong Challenge
Fringe Miss
Chaser
Non-Competitive
Meatball
Likely Ball
Extreme Drop
Large Break
Extreme Slow Velo
Breaking (R)
Squib/Bunt
Standard Grounder
Hard Grounder
Low Screamer
Rising Liner
Maybe Homer
Likely Homer
No Doubter
Routine Flyout
Pop up
Below 75 mph
75 to 86 mph
87 to 93 mph
94 to 99 mph
Above 100 mph
Below -10°
-10 to 0°
1 to 6°
7 to 18°
19 to 28°
29 to 38°
39 to 50°
Above 50°