Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

matchup for Jack Flaherty

434th out of 436 (Worst 1%)

Jack Flaherty

matchup for V. Guerrero Jr.

92nd out of 567 (Best 17%)

Extreme advantage for Guerrero Jr.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a 41.8% chance of reaching base vs Jack Flaherty, which is 2.9% higher than Guerrero Jr.'s typical expectations, and 7.6% higher than batters facing Flaherty.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	41.8%	30.2%	5.2%	6.5%	18.5%	11.6%	12.9%
Guerrero Jr.	+2.9	+1.3	+0.8	+0.4	+0.2	+1.7	-1.5
Flaherty	+7.6	+6.9	+1.6	+1.3	+4.0	+0.7	-9.9

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Jack Flaherty is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Guerrero Jr. has an A+ grade vs this particular release point.

Jack Flaherty throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has an A+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

44%

Slider (R)

27%

Kn-Curve (R)

18%

21% of Jack Flaherty's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 21%

+2%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 17%

Mid Challenge 11%

Chaser 6%

Weak Challenge 8%

Meatball 6%

Non-Competitive 12%

-1%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

45% of Jack Flaherty's pitches are classified as Breaking Pitches, which is 14% higher than the MLB average. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has an A+ grade against this type of pitch from right handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Breaking (R) 45%

+14%

Medium Break 20%

+11%

7.6% of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 11.7% lower than the league average. Jack Flaherty strikes out 20.5% of the batters he faces, which is 5.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

19%

Strikeout -11.7% +5.8% 4%

Walk -0.3% -1.5% 35%

In Play +12.0% -4.3% 39%

On Base +11.5% -2.0% 31%

Hit +11.8% -0.5% 14%

Single +4.3% +0.0% 13%

2B / 3B +4.7% -0.3% 3%

Home Run +2.8% -0.2%

37.8% of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.4% higher than the league average. Jack Flaherty induces Standard Grounders at a 36.3% rate, which is 1.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.1% -0.2% 34%

Standard Grounder +3.4% +1.9% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.2% -1.5% 14%

Low Screamer -0.5% +1.6% 9%

Rising Liner -0.4% +0.7% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.3% -0.3% 3%

Likely Homer +0.3% +0.1% 1%

No Doubter +0.8% -0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout -4.8% -1.3% 3%

Pop up +0.4% -0.8%

37.9% of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 13.6% higher than the league average. 21.5% of batted balls allowed by Jack Flaherty are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -3.3% +1.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph -0.5% +2.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph -5.7% +0.5% 19%

94 to 99 mph -4.0% -1.3% 24%

Above 100 mph +13.6% -2.8%

8.6% of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.8% lower than the league average. 12.2% of batted balls allowed by Jack Flaherty are hit at this angle, which is 0.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +6.0% +0.6% 12%

-10 to 0° +2.2% -1.0% 8%

1 to 6° -0.2% +0.2% 18%

7 to 18° -2.0% +1.4% 15%

19 to 28° -0.6% +0.2% 11%

29 to 38° -2.8% +0.7% 7%

39 to 50° -1.0% -0.2% 8%

Above 50° -1.5% -1.9%

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has 10 plate appearances against Jack Flaherty in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 8 with a home run, 2 walks

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	10	8	2	1	0	1	2	2	0.250
Expected From Contact →			2.54	0.30	0.63	1.61			0.317

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-07-19	Groundout			8%	92%
2024-07-19	Strikeout
2024-07-19	Home Run	22%	33%	24%	20%
2024-05-23	Groundout			30%	70%
2023-08-03	Strikeout
2023-08-03	Lineout	7%	19%		73%
2023-08-03	Single		6%	92%	2%
2023-04-01	Groundout		4%	7%	89%
2023-04-01	Walk
2023-04-01	Walk

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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