Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

matchup for Felix Bautista

435th out of 436 (Worst 0%)

Felix Bautista

matchup for V. Guerrero Jr.

out of 567 (Worst %)

Extreme advantage for Guerrero Jr.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a 36.4% chance of reaching base vs Felix Bautista, which is 2.5% lower than Guerrero Jr.'s typical expectations, and 7.3% higher than batters facing Bautista.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	36.4%	23.0%	4.6%	3.6%	14.8%	13.4%	22.6%
Guerrero Jr.	-2.5	-5.9	+0.1	-2.5	-3.5	+3.4	+8.2
Bautista	+7.3	+6.5	+2.0	+0.6	+3.9	+0.8	-13.1

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Felix Bautista is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Guerrero Jr. has an A- grade vs this particular release point.

Felix Bautista throws a 4-seam fastball 65% of the time. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has an A+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

65%

Splitter (R)

25%

Slider (R)

10% of Felix Bautista's pitches are classified as Strong Challenges, which is 5% higher than the MLB average. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Strong Challenge 10%

+5%

Chaser 9%

+3%

Mid Challenge 14%

+3%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Likely Ball 19%

Fringe Miss 11%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-1%

Meatball 2%

-5%

Weak Challenge 3%

-5%

54% of Felix Bautista's pitches are classified as Extreme Fast Velocity, which is 51% higher than the MLB average. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a B- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Fast Velo 54%

+51%

Medium Break 67%

+48%

Extreme Ride 47%

+43%

Offspeed (R) 25%

+14%

Fastball (R) 66%

+12%

7.6% of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 11.7% lower than the league average. Felix Bautista strikes out 25.5% of the batters he faces, which is 19.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

19%

Strikeout -11.7% +19.3% 4%

Walk -0.3% +2.3% 35%

In Play +12.0% -21.6% 39%

On Base +11.5% -10.2% 31%

Hit +11.8% -12.5% 14%

Single +4.3% -5.8% 13%

2B / 3B +4.7% -5.4% 3%

Home Run +2.8% -1.3%

37.8% of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.4% higher than the league average. Felix Bautista induces Standard Grounders at a 34.5% rate, which is 0.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.1% -0.8% 34%

Standard Grounder +3.4% +0.0% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.2% -2.4% 14%

Low Screamer -0.5% +0.3% 9%

Rising Liner -0.4% -3.9% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.3% +2.9% 3%

Likely Homer +0.3% -0.5% 1%

No Doubter +0.8% -0.6% 20%

Routine Flyout -4.8% -0.6% 3%

Pop up +0.4% +5.6%

37.9% of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 13.6% higher than the league average. 16.6% of batted balls allowed by Felix Bautista are hit at above 100 mph, which is 7.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -3.3% +2.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph -0.5% +5.5% 18%

87 to 93 mph -5.7% -1.7% 19%

94 to 99 mph -4.0% +1.4% 24%

Above 100 mph +13.6% -7.7%

8.6% of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.8% lower than the league average. 10.8% of batted balls allowed by Felix Bautista are hit at this angle, which is 0.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +6.0% -4.1% 12%

-10 to 0° +2.2% -1.4% 8%

1 to 6° -0.2% -2.3% 18%

7 to 18° -2.0% -3.1% 15%

19 to 28° -0.6% +2.1% 11%

29 to 38° -2.8% -0.6% 7%

39 to 50° -1.0% +0.7% 8%

Above 50° -1.5% +8.8%

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has 9 plate appearances against Felix Bautista in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 8 with a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	9	8	1	0	0	1	1	1	0.125
Expected From Contact →			1.77	0.04	0.27	1.47			0.221

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2025-03-29	Strikeout
2023-08-24	Pop Out				100%
2023-05-20	Flyout				99%
2022-09-18	Walk
2022-09-06	Lineout	3%	18%	4%	75%
2022-08-15	GIDP			3%	97%
2022-08-09	Lineout			60%	40%
2022-08-08	Field Error
2022-06-15	Single		7%	79%	13%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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