Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

matchup for Zach Eflin

436th out of 436 (Worst 0%)

Zach Eflin

matchup for V. Guerrero Jr.

133rd out of 567 (Best 24%)

Extreme advantage for Guerrero Jr.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a 41.2% chance of reaching base vs Zach Eflin, which is 2.0% higher than Guerrero Jr.'s typical expectations, and 10.1% higher than batters facing Eflin.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	41.2%	32.1%	4.0%	7.0%	21.1%	9.1%	11.8%
Guerrero Jr.	+2.0	+3.4	+0.3	+0.5	+2.5	-1.4	-2.2
Eflin	+10.1	+7.6	+0.9	+1.2	+5.6	+2.5	-9.2

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Zach Eflin is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Guerrero Jr. has an A+ grade vs this particular release point.

Zach Eflin throws a Sinker 33% of the time. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has an A grade against right-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (R)

33%

Curve (R)

19%

Cutter (R)

16%

Slider (R)

13%

4-Seam (R)

10%

Changeup (R)

12% of Zach Eflin's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 12%

+4%

Edge Painter 19%

+2%

Fringe Miss 14%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Meatball 6%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Likely Ball 18%

-1%

Non-Competitive 9%

-4%

35% of Zach Eflin's pitches are classified as Extreme Break Toward Third Base, which is 20% higher than the MLB average. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Break 35%

+20%

Just Gravity 31%

+17%

Extreme Slow Velo 17%

+12%

7.3% of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 12.3% lower than the league average. Zach Eflin strikes out 15.6% of the batters he faces, which is 0.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

19%

Strikeout -12.3% -0.2% 4%

Walk -0.1% -4.0% 35%

In Play +12.4% +4.1% 39%

On Base +11.5% -3.8% 31%

Hit +11.6% +0.2% 14%

Single +4.1% +0.0% 13%

2B / 3B +4.6% 0.0% 3%

Home Run +2.9% +0.1%

37.8% of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.4% higher than the league average. Zach Eflin induces Standard Grounders at a 36.1% rate, which is 1.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.1% +0.5% 34%

Standard Grounder +3.4% +1.7% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.1% -0.5% 14%

Low Screamer -0.5% -0.1% 9%

Rising Liner -0.4% -0.8% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.2% -0.2% 3%

Likely Homer +0.2% -1.2% 1%

No Doubter +0.8% +0.5% 20%

Routine Flyout -4.8% -0.1% 3%

Pop up +0.4% +0.2%

37.7% of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 13.4% higher than the league average. 25.5% of batted balls allowed by Zach Eflin are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -3.1% +1.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph -0.7% -0.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph -5.6% +0.5% 19%

94 to 99 mph -4.0% -3.2% 24%

Above 100 mph +13.4% +1.2%

8.5% of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.9% lower than the league average. 10.4% of batted balls allowed by Zach Eflin are hit at this angle, which is 1.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +6.1% +1.5% 12%

-10 to 0° +2.1% +0.6% 8%

1 to 6° -0.1% -0.3% 18%

7 to 18° -2.1% -1.4% 15%

19 to 28° -0.5% -0.7% 11%

29 to 38° -2.9% -1.1% 7%

39 to 50° -1.1% +1.6% 8%

Above 50° -1.5% -0.4%

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has 19 plate appearances against Zach Eflin in the last 3 years. He is 7 for 18 with 2 home runs, a double and a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	19	18	7	2	1	4	2	1	0.389
Expected From Contact →			7.14	1.97	1.54	3.62			0.397

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2025-03-27	Strikeout
2025-03-27	Walk
2025-03-27	Flyout
2024-07-29	Strikeout
2024-07-29	Lineout		9%	72%	20%
2024-07-29	Single			12%	88%
2024-07-24	Home Run	88%	2%		10%
2024-07-24	Single		19%	69%	12%
2024-07-24	GIDP			3%	97%
2024-05-18	Double		60%	31%	9%
2024-05-18	Single	11%	62%	13%	14%
2024-05-18	Groundout			13%	86%
2024-03-28	Groundout			39%	60%
2024-03-28	Home Run	98%			1%
2024-03-28	Flyout				99%
2023-05-25	Groundout			12%	88%
2023-05-25	Groundout			37%	63%
2023-05-25	Single			61%	38%
2022-09-20	Field Error

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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