matchup for Lance Lynn
matchup for V. Guerrero Jr.
10
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a 39.7% chance of reaching base vs Lance Lynn, which is 1.9% higher than Guerrero Jr.'s typical expectations, and 6.6% higher than batters facing Lynn.
| Reach | Hit | HR | 2B / 3B | 1B | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction | 39.7% | 31.2% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 19.8% | 8.5% | 11.7% |
| Guerrero Jr. | +1.9 | +3.3 | +0.9 | +0.4 | +2.0 | -1.3 | -3.3 |
| Lynn | +6.6 | +7.0 | +1.8 | +0.6 | +4.6 | -0.3 | -8.1 |
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Lance Lynn is right handed with an extreme release toward the third base side. Guerrero Jr. has an A+ grade vs this particular release point.
Lance Lynn throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has an A+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers
Pitch Type
% of Arsenal
4-Seam (R)
44%
Cutter (R)
25%
Sinker (R)
16%
Curve (R)
5%
Changeup (R)
5%
7% of Lance Lynn's pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.
Pitch Label
% vs MLB
Meatball
7%
+1%
Edge Painter
18%
+1%
Chaser
7%
+0%
Likely Ball
20%
+0%
Mid Challenge
11%
+0%
Strong Challenge
5%
0%
Non-Competitive
13%
0%
Fringe Miss
12%
0%
Weak Challenge
7%
-1%
85% of Lance Lynn's pitches are classified as Fastball Pitches, which is 32% higher than the MLB average. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has an A+ grade against this type of pitch from right handers.
Physical Trait
% vs MLB
Fastball (R)
85%
+32%
Medium Fast Velo
30%
+15%
Low Ride
36%
+12%
Small Break
19%
+10%
7.6% of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 11.8% lower than the league average. Lance Lynn strikes out 15.4% of the batters he faces, which is 1.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.
19%
Strikeout
-11.8%
+1.3%
5%
Walk
-0.6%
-1.7%
35%
In Play
+12.4%
+0.3%
39%
On Base
+10.8%
-2.3%
31%
Hit
+11.4%
-0.6%
14%
Single
+4.1%
-0.1%
13%
2B / 3B
+4.5%
-0.1%
3%
Home Run
+2.7%
-0.4%
37.8% of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.4% higher than the league average. Lance Lynn induces Standard Grounders at a 32.1% rate, which is 2.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.
0%
Squib/Bunt
-0.1%
-0.3%
34%
Standard Grounder
+3.4%
-2.3%
7%
Hard Grounder
+1.1%
-1.8%
14%
Low Screamer
-0.6%
+2.3%
9%
Rising Liner
-0.3%
-0.5%
4%
Maybe Homer
-0.3%
-0.3%
3%
Likely Homer
+0.3%
+0.8%
1%
No Doubter
+0.8%
-0.2%
20%
Routine Flyout
-4.8%
+0.6%
3%
Pop up
+0.4%
+1.6%
37.9% of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 13.6% higher than the league average. 23.9% of batted balls allowed by Lance Lynn are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.
16%
Below 75 mph
-3.3%
+0.4%
21%
75 to 86 mph
-0.7%
+1.7%
18%
87 to 93 mph
-5.7%
-0.6%
19%
94 to 99 mph
-4.0%
-1.2%
24%
Above 100 mph
+13.6%
-0.4%
8.6% of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.8% lower than the league average. 10.9% of batted balls allowed by Lance Lynn are hit at this angle, which is 0.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.
17%
Below -10°
+6.0%
-2.1%
12%
-10 to 0°
+2.1%
-0.4%
8%
1 to 6°
-0.2%
-2.7%
18%
7 to 18°
-2.0%
+1.7%
15%
19 to 28°
-0.6%
+0.5%
11%
29 to 38°
-2.8%
-0.6%
7%
39 to 50°
-1.0%
+1.2%
8%
Above 50°
-1.5%
+2.3%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has 9 plate appearances against Lance Lynn in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 7 with 2 walks
| PA | AB | H | HR | 2/3B | 1B | K | BB | Avg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.000 |
| Expected From Contact → | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.44 | 0.065 | ||||
| Expected From Contact | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Outcome | HR | 2/3B | 1B | Out |
| 2023-07-06 | Strikeout | ||||
| 2023-07-06 | Forceout | 15% | 85% | ||
| 2023-07-06 | Strikeout | ||||
| 2023-04-24 | GIDP | 9% | 91% | ||
| 2023-04-24 | Groundout | 21% | 79% | ||
| 2023-04-24 | Strikeout | ||||
| 2022-06-20 | Walk | ||||
| 2022-06-20 | Walk | ||||
| 2022-06-20 | Strikeout | ||||
Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.
