Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Fernando Tatis Jr.

matchup for Logan Gilbert

376th out of 436 (Worst 14%)

Logan Gilbert

matchup for F. Tatis Jr.

559th out of 567 (Worst 2%)

Moderate advantage for Gilbert

Fernando Tatis Jr. has a 27.8% chance of reaching base vs Logan Gilbert, which is 7.9% lower than Tatis Jr.'s typical expectations, and 3.1% higher than batters facing Gilbert.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	27.8%	21.8%	2.9%	5.5%	13.4%	6.0%	34.4%
Tatis Jr.	-7.9	-3.7	-1.1	-0.4	-2.2	-4.2	+13.0
Gilbert	+3.1	+2.1	+0.5	+0.5	+1.0	+1.0	-0.1

Fernando Tatis Jr. is better vs right-handed pitching. Logan Gilbert is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Tatis Jr. has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Logan Gilbert throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Fernando Tatis Jr. has an A+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

44%

Slider (R)

29%

Kn-Curve (R)

Splitter (R)

15% of Logan Gilbert's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Fernando Tatis Jr. has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 15%

+3%

Weak Challenge 10%

+2%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Strong Challenge 5%

Fringe Miss 12%

Likely Ball 19%

-1%

Meatball 5%

-2%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

35% of Logan Gilbert's pitches are classified as Medium Break Toward Third Base, which is 16% higher than the MLB average. Fernando Tatis Jr. has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Break 35%

+16%

Very Fast Velo 22%

+14%

High Ride 20%

+10%

Breaking (R) 41%

+10%

12.5% of Fernando Tatis Jr.'s plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 3.6% lower than the league average. Logan Gilbert strikes out 18.2% of the batters he faces, which is 4.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Strikeout -3.6% +4.3% 5%

Walk -0.8% -4.2% 38%

In Play +4.4% 0.0% 39%

On Base +5.3% -7.3% 31%

Hit +6.2% -3.1% 14%

Single +1.0% -2.0% 13%

2B / 3B +1.4% -1.6% 3%

Home Run +3.8% +0.5%

32.6% of Fernando Tatis Jr.'s batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 1.8% lower than the league average. Logan Gilbert induces Standard Grounders at a 31.3% rate, which is 3.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.4% +0.7% 34%

Standard Grounder -1.8% -3.1% 7%

Hard Grounder +4.4% +1.6% 14%

Low Screamer -3.3% -2.0% 9%

Rising Liner +0.0% +1.4% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.6% -0.4% 3%

Likely Homer +2.6% +0.2% 1%

No Doubter +1.8% -0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout -3.8% +1.1% 3%

Pop up -0.1% +0.7%

38.9% of Fernando Tatis Jr.'s batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 14.6% higher than the league average. 27.3% of batted balls allowed by Logan Gilbert are hit at above 100 mph, which is 3.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -5.2% -2.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph -4.7% -3.4% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.1% +0.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph -0.6% +2.0% 24%

Above 100 mph +14.6% +3.0%

10.0% of Fernando Tatis Jr.'s batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.4% lower than the league average. 9.3% of batted balls allowed by Logan Gilbert are hit at this angle, which is 2.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +3.1% -3.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.8% +2.1% 8%

1 to 6° +1.1% +1.4% 18%

7 to 18° -0.5% +0.3% 15%

19 to 28° +1.3% -1.1% 11%

29 to 38° -1.4% -2.2% 7%

39 to 50° -1.2% +0.5% 8%

Above 50° -1.5% +2.2%

Fernando Tatis Jr. has 6 plate appearances against Logan Gilbert in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 6 with a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	6	1	0	1	0	1	0	0.167
Expected From Contact →			1.63	0.95	0.43	0.25			0.271

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-08-08	Strikeout
2023-08-08	Pop Out				100%
2023-08-08	Flyout	95%	1%		4%
2023-06-06	Groundout			16%	84%
2023-06-06	Double		42%	9%	50%
2023-06-06	Flyout				100%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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