Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Fernando Tatis Jr.

matchup for Pablo Lopez

419th out of 436 (Worst 4%)

Pablo Lopez

matchup for F. Tatis Jr.

412th out of 564 (Worst 27%)

Strong advantage for Tatis Jr.

Fernando Tatis Jr. has a 33.3% chance of reaching base vs Pablo Lopez, which is 2.5% lower than Tatis Jr.'s typical expectations, and 2.7% higher than batters facing Lopez.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	33.3%	25.7%	3.6%	5.8%	16.3%	7.6%	21.2%
Tatis Jr.	-2.5	+0.2	-0.3	-0.1	+0.7	-2.7	-0.3
Lopez	+2.7	+2.0	+1.1	+1.3	-0.4	+0.7	-4.4

Fernando Tatis Jr. is better vs right-handed pitching. Pablo Lopez is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Tatis Jr. has an A+ grade vs this particular release point.

Pablo Lopez throws a 4-seam fastball 37% of the time. Fernando Tatis Jr. has an A+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

37%

Changeup (R)

25%

Slider (R)

13%

Curve (R)

10%

Sinker (R)

8% of Pablo Lopez's pitches are classified as Chasers, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Fernando Tatis Jr. has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Chaser 8%

+2%

Mid Challenge 13%

+1%

Weak Challenge 9%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

Meatball 4%

-2%

Non-Competitive 9%

-4%

25% of Pablo Lopez's pitches are classified as Offspeed Pitches, which is 14% higher than the MLB average. Fernando Tatis Jr. has an A grade against this type of pitch from right handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Offspeed (R) 25%

+14%

Extreme Break 26%

+11%

Fast Velo 26%

+11%

12.5% of Fernando Tatis Jr.'s plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 3.6% lower than the league average. Pablo Lopez strikes out 18.6% of the batters he faces, which is 4.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Strikeout -3.6% +4.2% 5%

Walk -0.8% -2.5% 38%

In Play +4.4% -1.7% 39%

On Base +5.3% -1.8% 31%

Hit +6.2% +0.7% 14%

Single +1.0% +0.3% 13%

2B / 3B +1.4% +0.8% 3%

Home Run +3.8% -0.4%

32.6% of Fernando Tatis Jr.'s batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 1.8% lower than the league average. Pablo Lopez induces Standard Grounders at a 38.8% rate, which is 4.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.4% -0.2% 34%

Standard Grounder -1.8% +4.4% 7%

Hard Grounder +4.4% -1.4% 14%

Low Screamer -3.3% +1.3% 9%

Rising Liner +0.0% -0.9% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.6% -0.5% 3%

Likely Homer +2.6% -0.2% 1%

No Doubter +1.8% -0.6% 20%

Routine Flyout -3.8% -1.7% 3%

Pop up -0.1% -0.2%

38.9% of Fernando Tatis Jr.'s batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 14.6% higher than the league average. 23.0% of batted balls allowed by Pablo Lopez are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -5.2% +0.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph -4.7% +4.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.1% -0.9% 19%

94 to 99 mph -0.6% -2.2% 24%

Above 100 mph +14.6% -1.3%

10.0% of Fernando Tatis Jr.'s batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.4% lower than the league average. 10.3% of batted balls allowed by Pablo Lopez are hit at this angle, which is 1.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +3.1% +3.0% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.8% +0.8% 8%

1 to 6° +1.1% -0.3% 18%

7 to 18° -0.5% -1.8% 15%

19 to 28° +1.3% +0.7% 11%

29 to 38° -1.4% -1.1% 7%

39 to 50° -1.2% -0.8% 8%

Above 50° -1.5% -0.5%

Fernando Tatis Jr. has 3 plate appearances against Pablo Lopez in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 3 with 3 strikeouts.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00			0.000

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-05-10	Strikeout
2023-05-10	Strikeout
2023-05-10	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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