Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Fernando Tatis Jr.

matchup for Michael Wacha

432nd out of 436 (Worst 1%)

Michael Wacha

matchup for F. Tatis Jr.

200th out of 567 (Best 36%)

Extreme advantage for Tatis Jr.

Fernando Tatis Jr. has a 36.5% chance of reaching base vs Michael Wacha, which is 0.7% higher than Tatis Jr.'s typical expectations, and 5.3% higher than batters facing Wacha.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	36.5%	27.2%	3.9%	6.5%	16.8%	9.3%	16.8%
Tatis Jr.	+0.7	+1.7	-0.1	+0.5	+1.2	-1.0	-4.6
Wacha	+5.3	+4.1	+1.2	+1.4	+1.5	+1.3	-4.6

Fernando Tatis Jr. is better vs right-handed pitching. Michael Wacha is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Tatis Jr. has an A+ grade vs this particular release point.

Michael Wacha throws a Changeup 32% of the time. Fernando Tatis Jr. has an A- grade against right-handed Changeups

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Changeup (R)

32%

4-Seam (R)

31%

Cutter (R)

17%

Sinker (R)

11%

Curve (R)

8% of Michael Wacha's pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Fernando Tatis Jr. has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Meatball 8%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+0%

Weak Challenge 8%

Strong Challenge 5%

-1%

Likely Ball 18%

-2%

Non-Competitive 10%

-3%

32% of Michael Wacha's pitches are classified as Offspeed Pitches, which is 20% higher than the MLB average. Fernando Tatis Jr. has an A grade against this type of pitch from right handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Offspeed (R) 32%

+20%

Medium Break 30%

+11%

High Ride 19%

+9%

12.5% of Fernando Tatis Jr.'s plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 3.6% lower than the league average. Michael Wacha strikes out 16.3% of the batters he faces, which is 0.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Strikeout -3.6% +0.4% 5%

Walk -0.8% -2.0% 38%

In Play +4.4% +1.5% 39%

On Base +5.3% -3.0% 31%

Hit +6.2% -1.0% 14%

Single +1.0% -0.6% 13%

2B / 3B +1.4% -0.5% 3%

Home Run +3.8% +0.1%

32.6% of Fernando Tatis Jr.'s batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 1.8% lower than the league average. Michael Wacha induces Standard Grounders at a 33.6% rate, which is 0.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.4% -0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder -1.8% -0.8% 7%

Hard Grounder +4.4% +0.5% 14%

Low Screamer -3.3% +1.5% 9%

Rising Liner +0.0% +0.7% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.6% -0.3% 3%

Likely Homer +2.6% -0.1% 1%

No Doubter +1.8% 0.0% 20%

Routine Flyout -3.8% -1.8% 3%

Pop up -0.1% +0.6%

38.9% of Fernando Tatis Jr.'s batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 14.6% higher than the league average. 26.9% of batted balls allowed by Michael Wacha are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -5.2% +0.0% 21%

75 to 86 mph -4.7% +0.4% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.1% -0.3% 19%

94 to 99 mph -0.6% -2.7% 24%

Above 100 mph +14.6% +2.6%

10.0% of Fernando Tatis Jr.'s batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.4% lower than the league average. 10.7% of batted balls allowed by Michael Wacha are hit at this angle, which is 0.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +3.1% -2.9% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.8% +1.7% 8%

1 to 6° +1.1% -0.8% 18%

7 to 18° -0.5% +2.8% 15%

19 to 28° +1.3% +0.9% 11%

29 to 38° -1.4% -0.7% 7%

39 to 50° -1.2% -1.6% 8%

Above 50° -1.5% +0.6%

Fernando Tatis Jr. has 3 plate appearances against Michael Wacha in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 3 with a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.333
Expected From Contact →			1.17	0.77	0.22	0.18			0.389

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-05-31	Double	77%	21%		1%
2024-05-31	Groundout			14%	86%
2024-05-31	Groundout			4%	96%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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