Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Kyle Isbel

matchup for Jon Gray

294th out of 436 (Worst 33%)

Jon Gray

matchup for Kyle Isbel

29th out of 567 (Best 6%)

Strong advantage for Isbel

Kyle Isbel has a 34.1% chance of reaching base vs Jon Gray, which is 3.1% higher than Isbel's typical expectations, and 1.0% higher than batters facing Gray.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	34.1%	27.7%	2.4%	5.9%	19.3%	6.4%	13.6%
Isbel	+3.1	+5.5	+0.5	+1.1	+3.9	-2.4	-8.8
Gray	+1.0	+1.3	-0.7	+0.2	+1.8	-0.2	-3.4

Kyle Isbel is better vs right-handed pitching. Jon Gray is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Isbel has a D grade vs this particular release point.

Jon Gray throws a 4-seam fastball 47% of the time. Kyle Isbel has a C grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

47%

Slider (R)

38%

Changeup (R)

Curve (R)

11% of Jon Gray's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Kyle Isbel has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 11%

+3%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Fringe Miss 12%

Likely Ball 19%

Meatball 6%

Chaser 6%

-1%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

41% of Jon Gray's pitches are classified as Low Ride, which is 17% higher than the MLB average. Kyle Isbel has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Low Ride 41%

+17%

Large Break 35%

+14%

Breaking (R) 44%

+14%

Medium Slow Velo 25%

+12%

13.5% of Kyle Isbel's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 1.8% lower than the league average. Jon Gray strikes out 17.9% of the batters he faces, which is 3.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -1.8% +3.8% 5%

Walk -0.9% -1.2% 38%

In Play +2.7% -2.6% 39%

On Base -1.2% -0.6% 31%

Hit -0.4% +0.6% 14%

Single +0.4% +0.8% 13%

2B / 3B +0.5% +0.4% 3%

Home Run -1.2% -0.6%

33.2% of Kyle Isbel's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 1.2% lower than the league average. Jon Gray induces Standard Grounders at a 34.7% rate, which is 0.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.9% 0.0% 34%

Standard Grounder -1.2% +0.2% 7%

Hard Grounder +2.1% +0.0% 14%

Low Screamer -0.6% -0.3% 9%

Rising Liner +0.5% +0.7% 4%

Maybe Homer -1.2% -1.5% 3%

Likely Homer -2.1% -0.5% 1%

No Doubter -0.8% -0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout -1.2% +1.0% 3%

Pop up +3.5% +0.4%

26.8% of Kyle Isbel's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.5% higher than the league average. 26.7% of batted balls allowed by Jon Gray are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.7% -0.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.8% -2.3% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.9% +0.0% 19%

94 to 99 mph -3.3% +0.1% 24%

Above 100 mph +2.5% +2.4%

6.2% of Kyle Isbel's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 5.2% lower than the league average. 9.6% of batted balls allowed by Jon Gray are hit at this angle, which is 1.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +0.6% +1.0% 12%

-10 to 0° +0.7% -1.5% 8%

1 to 6° +2.5% +0.4% 18%

7 to 18° -0.8% +1.4% 15%

19 to 28° -2.7% +0.4% 11%

29 to 38° -5.2% -1.9% 7%

39 to 50° +1.5% +0.8% 8%

Above 50° +3.4% -0.6%

Kyle Isbel has 5 plate appearances against Jon Gray in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 5 with 2 strikeouts.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.66	0.00	0.12	0.54			0.132

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-05-05	Flyout				100%
2024-05-05	Lineout		1%	48%	50%
2024-05-05	Groundout		11%	5%	84%
2022-06-28	Strikeout
2022-06-28	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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