matchup for Brad Keller
matchup for Estevan Florial
3
Estevan Florial has a 30.1% chance of reaching base vs Brad Keller, which is 2.9% higher than Florial's typical expectations, and 2.7% lower than batters facing Keller.
| Reach | Hit | HR | 2B / 3B | 1B | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction | 30.1% | 18.9% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 31.5% |
| Florial | +2.9 | +1.4 | -0.1 | +0.5 | +1.0 | +1.5 | -6.4 |
| Keller | -2.7 | -3.8 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -3.1 | +1.1 | +11.7 |
Estevan Florial hasn't faced much right-handed pitching. Brad Keller is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Florial doesn't have many appearances against this particular release point.
Brad Keller throws a 4-seam fastball 36% of the time. Estevan Florial has an F grade against right-handed 4-seamers
Pitch Type
% of Arsenal
4-Seam (R)
36%
Slider (R)
34%
Sinker (R)
16%
13% of Brad Keller's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Estevan Florial hasn't faced this type of pitch very often.
Pitch Label
% vs MLB
Weak Challenge
13%
+4%
Likely Ball
20%
+1%
Non-Competitive
13%
+1%
Edge Painter
17%
0%
Fringe Miss
12%
0%
Chaser
5%
-1%
Strong Challenge
3%
-2%
Mid Challenge
10%
-2%
Meatball
5%
-2%
39% of Brad Keller's pitches are classified as Low Ride, which is 16% higher than the MLB average. Estevan Florial has a D- grade against this type of pitch.
Physical Trait
% vs MLB
Low Ride
39%
+16%
Small Break
25%
+14%
Medium Fast Velo
27%
+12%
26.0% of Estevan Florial's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 9.8% higher than the league average. Brad Keller strikes out 11.7% of the batters he faces, which is 5.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.
16%
Strikeout
+9.8%
-5.3%
5%
Walk
+2.7%
+0.7%
54%
In Play
-12.5%
+4.6%
39%
On Base
-6.6%
+4.5%
31%
Hit
-9.3%
+3.8%
14%
Single
-4.6%
+2.0%
13%
2B / 3B
-4.2%
+2.3%
3%
Home Run
-0.5%
-0.5%
42.2% of Estevan Florial's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 7.8% higher than the league average. Brad Keller induces Standard Grounders at a 42.2% rate, which is 7.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.
0%
Squib/Bunt
+1.0%
+0.6%
34%
Standard Grounder
+7.8%
+7.8%
7%
Hard Grounder
-7.8%
+0.8%
14%
Low Screamer
+0.3%
-0.2%
9%
Rising Liner
-9.6%
-3.7%
4%
Maybe Homer
-2.4%
+0.6%
3%
Likely Homer
-3.6%
-1.0%
1%
No Doubter
-1.2%
+1.0%
20%
Routine Flyout
+14.9%
-4.3%
3%
Pop up
+0.4%
-1.6%
33.3% of Estevan Florial's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 9.0% higher than the league average. 25.4% of batted balls allowed by Brad Keller are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.
16%
Below 75 mph
-6.4%
+0.6%
21%
75 to 86 mph
+10.3%
+1.8%
18%
87 to 93 mph
+0.6%
-2.6%
19%
94 to 99 mph
-13.5%
-0.9%
24%
Above 100 mph
+9.0%
+1.1%
1.9% of Estevan Florial's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 9.5% lower than the league average. 9.4% of batted balls allowed by Brad Keller are hit at this angle, which is 2.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.
17%
Below -10°
-4.1%
+8.1%
12%
-10 to 0°
+3.6%
+0.7%
8%
1 to 6°
+5.6%
+0.4%
18%
7 to 18°
-7.1%
-3.9%
15%
19 to 28°
+10.0%
+0.5%
11%
29 to 38°
-9.5%
-2.0%
7%
39 to 50°
+5.8%
-1.1%
8%
Above 50°
-4.4%
-2.7%
Estevan Florial has 1 plate appearance against Brad Keller in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 1.
| PA | AB | H | HR | 2/3B | 1B | K | BB | Avg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Expected From Contact → | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.22 | 0.248 | ||||
| Expected From Contact | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Outcome | HR | 2/3B | 1B | Out |
| 2024-05-12 | Groundout | 3% | 22% | 75% | |
Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.
