Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Harrison Bader

matchup for Jordan Lyles

276th out of 436 (Worst 37%)

Jordan Lyles

matchup for Harrison Bader

out of 567 (Worst %)

Strong advantage for Bader

Harrison Bader has a 32.8% chance of reaching base vs Jordan Lyles, which is 2.1% higher than Bader's typical expectations, and 0.8% lower than batters facing Lyles.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	32.8%	25.6%	3.6%	6.8%	15.1%	7.3%	18.2%
Bader	+2.1	+1.7	+0.6	+1.5	-0.4	+0.4	-5.0
Lyles	-0.8	+1.3	+0.3	+1.0	+0.0	-2.2	-0.1

Harrison Bader is worse vs right-handed pitching. Jordan Lyles is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Bader has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Jordan Lyles throws a 4-seam fastball 35% of the time. Harrison Bader has a D grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

35%

Slider (R)

23%

Curve (R)

17%

Sinker (R)

12%

Changeup (R)

10%

9% of Jordan Lyles's pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Harrison Bader has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Meatball 9%

+3%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Chaser 6%

+0%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Non-Competitive 12%

-1%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Weak Challenge 7%

-1%

16% of Jordan Lyles's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 12% higher than the MLB average. Harrison Bader has a D- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 16%

+12%

Medium Velo 21%

+10%

Medium Break 28%

+9%

Breaking (R) 40%

+9%

13.1% of Harrison Bader's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.6% lower than the league average. Jordan Lyles strikes out 15.7% of the batters he faces, which is 0.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.6% +0.8% 6%

Walk -3.1% -2.3% 37%

In Play +5.6% +1.5% 39%

On Base -3.6% -4.1% 31%

Hit -0.5% -1.7% 14%

Single -0.6% -1.0% 13%

2B / 3B -0.1% -0.7% 3%

Home Run +0.2% -0.1%

33.4% of Harrison Bader's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 1.0% lower than the league average. Jordan Lyles induces Standard Grounders at a 26.4% rate, which is 8.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.4% +0.5% 34%

Standard Grounder -1.0% -8.1% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.9% +1.3% 14%

Low Screamer +0.9% 0.0% 9%

Rising Liner -1.4% -1.3% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.1% -0.3% 3%

Likely Homer -1.0% +2.6% 1%

No Doubter +0.2% +0.4% 20%

Routine Flyout -1.3% +1.8% 3%

Pop up +3.1% +3.1%

20.5% of Harrison Bader's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.8% lower than the league average. 24.9% of batted balls allowed by Jordan Lyles are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +6.1% -2.7% 21%

75 to 86 mph +0.5% +1.2% 18%

87 to 93 mph +0.2% 0.0% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.9% +0.9% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.8% +0.6%

11.6% of Harrison Bader's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.2% higher than the league average. 11.3% of batted balls allowed by Jordan Lyles are hit at this angle, which is 0.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +0.6% -4.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.1% -1.7% 8%

1 to 6° -1.1% 0.0% 18%

7 to 18° -1.4% -2.3% 15%

19 to 28° -0.7% +1.4% 11%

29 to 38° +0.2% -0.2% 7%

39 to 50° +1.7% +0.4% 8%

Above 50° +2.6% +6.6%

Harrison Bader has 6 plate appearances against Jordan Lyles in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 6 with 3 strikeouts.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	6	1	0	0	1	3	0	0.167
Expected From Contact →			0.84	0.00	0.04	0.80			0.140

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-07-23	Strikeout
2023-07-23	Single			57%	43%
2023-07-23	Flyout		2%		97%
2022-09-30	Strikeout
2022-09-30	Strikeout
2022-09-30	Groundout			23%	76%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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