Matchup Machine

Ty France

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matchup for Yusei Kikuchi

396th out of 436 (Worst 9%)

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Yusei Kikuchi

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matchup for Ty France

394th out of 567 (Worst 31%)

Leans in favor of France
1

Model Prediction

Ty France has a 29.4% chance of reaching base vs Yusei Kikuchi, which is 1.9% lower than France's typical expectations, and 2.9% higher than batters facing Kikuchi.

Reach Hit HR 2B / 3B 1B BB K
Prediction29.4%24.7%3.1%4.7%16.9%4.7%22.6%
France-1.9+0.6+0.2-0.1+0.4-2.5+1.7
Kikuchi+2.9+4.2+0.4-0.1+3.8-1.3-7.0

Handedness and Release Point

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Ty France is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. Yusei Kikuchi is left handed with a horizontal release toward the first base side. France has an A- grade vs this particular release point.

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On the Way to the Plate

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Yusei Kikuchi throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Ty France has a B+ grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type % of Arsenal    4-Seam (L)
44%
   Slider (L)
24%
   Changeup (L)
11%
   Curve (L)
11%
   Cutter (L)
9%

Contact and Outcomes

12.2% of Ty France's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 4.0% lower than the league average. Yusei Kikuchi strikes out 18.3% of the batters he faces, which is 4.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label 16%         Strikeout -4.0% +4.3% 5%         Walk -1.3% -1.4% 37%         In Play +5.3% -2.8% 39%         On Base -0.2% -0.9% 31%         Hit +1.1% +0.5% 14%         Single +0.2% +0.1% 13%         2B / 3B +0.6% +0.3% 3%         Home Run +0.4% +0.2%

History

Ty France has 8 plate appearances against Yusei Kikuchi in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 6 with 2 walks

PA AB H HR 2/3B 1B K BB Avg
Actual861001220.167
Expected From Contact →1.150.110.130.920.192
Expected From Contact
Date Outcome HR 2/3B 1B Out
2024-04-10Strikeout
2024-04-10Lineout6%3%91%
2024-04-10Strikeout
2023-07-21Flyout7%3%89%
2023-07-21Single88%12%
2022-05-16Walk
2022-05-16Walk
2022-05-16Flyout3%4%93%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.