Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Nathaniel Lowe

matchup for Mitch Keller

402nd out of 436 (Worst 8%)

Mitch Keller

matchup for Nathaniel Lowe

214th out of 567 (Best 39%)

Strong advantage for Lowe

Nathaniel Lowe has a 36.4% chance of reaching base vs Mitch Keller, which is 1.4% higher than Lowe's typical expectations, and 4.2% higher than batters facing Keller.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	36.4%	26.5%	3.0%	5.7%	17.8%	9.8%	24.8%
Lowe	+1.4	+3.7	+0.2	+0.9	+2.6	-2.3	+0.8
Keller	+4.2	+2.2	+0.3	+0.6	+1.3	+2.0	-0.8

Nathaniel Lowe is better vs right-handed pitching. Mitch Keller is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Lowe has a B- grade vs this particular release point.

Mitch Keller throws a 4-seam fastball 34% of the time. Nathaniel Lowe has a C- grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

34%

Slider (R)

21%

Sinker (R)

19%

Cutter (R)

12%

Curve (R)

11%

13% of Mitch Keller's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Nathaniel Lowe has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 13%

+2%

Weak Challenge 10%

+2%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Strong Challenge 5%

+0%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Non-Competitive 12%

-1%

Chaser 5%

-1%

Likely Ball 18%

-1%

Meatball 4%

-3%

64% of Mitch Keller's pitches are classified as Fastball Pitches, which is 10% higher than the MLB average. Nathaniel Lowe has a C grade against this type of pitch from right handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Fastball (R) 64%

+10%

Fast Velo 24%

+9%

14.3% of Nathaniel Lowe's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.5% lower than the league average. Mitch Keller strikes out 16.1% of the batters he faces, which is 1.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout -0.5% +1.0% 3%

Walk +3.5% -1.9% 41%

In Play -2.9% +0.8% 39%

On Base +6.1% +0.9% 31%

Hit +2.7% +2.8% 14%

Single +0.9% +1.2% 13%

2B / 3B +1.4% +1.6% 3%

Home Run +0.4% +0.0%

40.2% of Nathaniel Lowe's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.8% higher than the league average. Mitch Keller induces Standard Grounders at a 35.2% rate, which is 0.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.3% -0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder +5.8% +0.8% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.8% -1.1% 14%

Low Screamer -2.0% +1.9% 9%

Rising Liner +1.0% +1.7% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.0% -0.6% 3%

Likely Homer +0.4% +0.1% 1%

No Doubter -0.4% +0.0% 20%

Routine Flyout -5.0% -2.5% 3%

Pop up -1.4% 0.0%

31.0% of Nathaniel Lowe's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 6.7% higher than the league average. 24.8% of batted balls allowed by Mitch Keller are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -0.7% -1.2% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.0% +2.4% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.3% -1.8% 19%

94 to 99 mph -1.6% +0.2% 24%

Above 100 mph +6.7% +0.5%

8.2% of Nathaniel Lowe's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 3.3% lower than the league average. 12.6% of batted balls allowed by Mitch Keller are hit at this angle, which is 1.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +5.1% +1.7% 12%

-10 to 0° +1.8% -2.2% 8%

1 to 6° +1.1% -0.4% 18%

7 to 18° +0.8% +1.7% 15%

19 to 28° -0.7% -0.9% 11%

29 to 38° -3.3% +1.2% 7%

39 to 50° -2.6% -0.2% 8%

Above 50° -2.3% -1.0%

Nathaniel Lowe has 3 plate appearances against Mitch Keller in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 3.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.07	0.00	0.04	0.03			0.023

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-08-20	Lineout		2%	2%	96%
2024-08-20	Flyout				99%
2024-08-20	Flyout				99%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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