Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Nathaniel Lowe

matchup for Brad Keller

372nd out of 436 (Worst 15%)

Brad Keller

matchup for Nathaniel Lowe

211st out of 567 (Best 38%)

Strong advantage for Lowe

Nathaniel Lowe has a 36.7% chance of reaching base vs Brad Keller, which is 1.8% higher than Lowe's typical expectations, and 4.0% higher than batters facing Keller.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	36.7%	21.8%	2.8%	4.2%	14.8%	15.0%	18.9%
Lowe	+1.8	-1.0	+0.1	-0.6	-0.4	+2.9	-5.1
Keller	+4.0	-0.9	-0.2	-0.8	+0.1	+4.9	-0.9

Nathaniel Lowe is better vs right-handed pitching. Brad Keller is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Lowe has an A- grade vs this particular release point.

Brad Keller throws a 4-seam fastball 36% of the time. Nathaniel Lowe has a C- grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

36%

Slider (R)

34%

Sinker (R)

16%

13% of Brad Keller's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Nathaniel Lowe has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 13%

+4%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Non-Competitive 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 17%

Fringe Miss 12%

Chaser 5%

-1%

Strong Challenge 3%

-2%

Mid Challenge 10%

-2%

Meatball 5%

-2%

39% of Brad Keller's pitches are classified as Low Ride, which is 16% higher than the MLB average. Nathaniel Lowe has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Low Ride 39%

+16%

Small Break 25%

+14%

Medium Fast Velo 27%

+12%

14.3% of Nathaniel Lowe's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.5% lower than the league average. Brad Keller strikes out 11.7% of the batters he faces, which is 5.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout -0.5% -5.3% 3%

Walk +3.5% +0.7% 41%

In Play -2.9% +4.6% 39%

On Base +6.1% +4.5% 31%

Hit +2.7% +3.8% 14%

Single +0.9% +2.0% 13%

2B / 3B +1.4% +2.3% 3%

Home Run +0.4% -0.5%

40.2% of Nathaniel Lowe's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.8% higher than the league average. Brad Keller induces Standard Grounders at a 42.2% rate, which is 7.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.3% +0.6% 34%

Standard Grounder +5.8% +7.8% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.8% +0.8% 14%

Low Screamer -2.0% -0.2% 9%

Rising Liner +1.0% -3.7% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.0% +0.6% 3%

Likely Homer +0.4% -1.0% 1%

No Doubter -0.4% +1.0% 20%

Routine Flyout -5.0% -4.3% 3%

Pop up -1.4% -1.6%

31.0% of Nathaniel Lowe's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 6.7% higher than the league average. 25.4% of batted balls allowed by Brad Keller are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -0.7% +0.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.0% +1.8% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.3% -2.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph -1.6% -0.9% 24%

Above 100 mph +6.7% +1.1%

8.2% of Nathaniel Lowe's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 3.3% lower than the league average. 9.4% of batted balls allowed by Brad Keller are hit at this angle, which is 2.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +5.1% +8.1% 12%

-10 to 0° +1.8% +0.7% 8%

1 to 6° +1.1% +0.4% 18%

7 to 18° +0.8% -3.9% 15%

19 to 28° -0.7% +0.5% 11%

29 to 38° -3.3% -2.0% 7%

39 to 50° -2.6% -1.1% 8%

Above 50° -2.3% -2.7%

Nathaniel Lowe has 8 plate appearances against Brad Keller in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 8 with a home run and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	8	8	1	1	0	0	0	0	0.125
Expected From Contact →			1.61	0.93	0.09	0.58			0.201

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-04-18	Forceout			16%	84%
2023-04-18	GIDP			10%	90%
2023-04-12	Forceout			23%	77%
2023-04-12	Home Run	92%	6%		3%
2023-04-12	Groundout			8%	92%
2022-05-10	Pop Out				99%
2022-05-10	Pop Out				99%
2022-05-10	Flyout	1%	2%		96%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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