Matchup Machine

Nathaniel Lowe

Worst 27% of matchups for Austin Gomber

Austin Gomber

Best 42% of matchups for Nathaniel Lowe

Strong advantage for Lowe

Model Prediction
Prediction	2.7%	4.3%	16.7%	10.2%	18.1%
MLB (+/-)	-0.1	+0.1	+2.7	+0.4	-7.1
Lowe	+0.0	-0.3	+2.7	-2.9	-6.4
Gomber	-0.6	-0.0	+0.4	+2.3	+1.7

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

2.7%

4.3%

16.7%

10.2%

18.1%

MLB (+/-)

-0.1

+0.1

+2.7

+0.4

-7.1

Lowe

+0.0

-0.3

+2.7

-2.9

-6.4

Gomber

-0.6

-0.0

+0.4

+2.3

+1.7

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	7	7	4	1	1	2	1	0	.571
Expected From Contact →			2.57	0.77	0.67	1.13			.368

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2022-08-24	Lineout		42%	42%	16%
2022-08-24	Flyout				99%
2022-04-11	Strikeout
2022-04-11	Double		7%	7%	86%
2021-08-31	Home Run	77%	17%		6%
2021-08-31	Single			28%	72%
2021-08-31	Single			36%	64%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	47%	10	LHB vs LHP	22	20%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

47%

LHB vs LHP

20%

Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
47%	-1	Fastball	16	45%
21%	47	Breaking	-26	37%
7%	32	Offspeed	0	18%
		------------------
47%	-17	Four-Seam FB	-3	44%
54%	48	Slider	-6	20%
44%	35	Changeup	0	18%
41%	41	Knuckle-Curve	-94	17%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

47%

-1

Fastball

45%

21%

Breaking

-26

37%

Offspeed

18%

------------------

47%

-17

Four-Seam FB

-3

44%

54%

Slider

-6

20%

44%

Changeup

18%

41%

Knuckle-Curve

-94

17%

Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
50%	42	Away / Glove Side	38	17%
66%	36	Bottom of zone	13	13%
76%	-1	Top of zone	-3	12%
76%	32	Middle	45	7%
72%	26	In / Arm Side	52	5%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

50%

Away / Glove Side

17%

66%

Bottom of zone

13%

76%

-1

Top of zone

-3

12%

76%

Middle

72%

In / Arm Side

Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
22%	38	Away / Glove Side	41	34%
33%	21	Below the zone	22	30%
34%	-25	Above the zone	8	24%
40%	-18	In / Arm Side	19	10%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

22%

Away / Glove Side

34%

33%

Below the zone

30%

34%

-25

Above the zone

24%

40%

-18

In / Arm Side

10%

	Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
	29%	-7	First Pitch	10	28%
	52%	1	Batter Behind	0	28%
	51%	52	Batter Ahead	4	26%
	60%	14	2 Strikes	-23	26%
⭐⭐	62%	88	3 Balls	2	8%
⭐⭐	72%	90	Full Count	-9	4%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

29%

-7

First Pitch

28%

52%

Batter Behind

28%

51%

Batter Ahead

26%

60%

2 Strikes

-23

26%

⭐⭐

62%

3 Balls

⭐⭐

72%

Full Count

-9