Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Nathaniel Lowe

matchup for Caleb Thielbar

358th out of 436 (Worst 18%)

Caleb Thielbar

matchup for Nathaniel Lowe

294th out of 567 (Worst 48%)

Strong advantage for Lowe

Nathaniel Lowe has a 35.3% chance of reaching base vs Caleb Thielbar, which is 0.4% higher than Lowe's typical expectations, and 3.4% higher than batters facing Thielbar.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	35.3%	22.8%	3.3%	4.4%	15.0%	12.5%	26.5%
Lowe	+0.4	+0.0	+0.6	-0.4	-0.2	+0.4	+2.4
Thielbar	+3.4	+1.0	+0.1	-0.6	+1.6	+2.4	-1.5

Nathaniel Lowe is worse vs left-handed pitching. Caleb Thielbar is left handed with an over-the-top delivery. Lowe has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Caleb Thielbar throws a 4-seam fastball 49% of the time. Nathaniel Lowe has a D+ grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

49%

Slider (L)

29%

Curve (L)

22%

16% of Caleb Thielbar's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 5% higher than the MLB average. Nathaniel Lowe has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 16%

+5%

Strong Challenge 9%

+4%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Edge Painter 17%

Chaser 5%

-1%

Meatball 3%

-2%

Weak Challenge 6%

-3%

Non-Competitive 8%

-4%

50% of Caleb Thielbar's pitches are classified as Breaking Pitches, which is 21% higher than the MLB average. Nathaniel Lowe has a B+ grade against this type of pitch from left handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Breaking (L) 50%

+21%

Small Break 29%

+21%

Slow Lob 22%

+18%

Extreme Drop 22%

+17%

14.3% of Nathaniel Lowe's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.5% lower than the league average. Caleb Thielbar strikes out 18.8% of the batters he faces, which is 5.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout -0.5% +5.2% 3%

Walk +3.5% +1.9% 41%

In Play -2.9% -7.1% 39%

On Base +6.1% -6.1% 31%

Hit +2.7% -8.0% 14%

Single +0.9% -4.3% 13%

2B / 3B +1.4% -3.9% 3%

Home Run +0.4% +0.2%

40.2% of Nathaniel Lowe's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.8% higher than the league average. Caleb Thielbar induces Standard Grounders at a 31.6% rate, which is 2.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.3% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder +5.8% -2.8% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.8% -3.1% 14%

Low Screamer -2.0% -0.5% 9%

Rising Liner +1.0% -1.4% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.0% -0.7% 3%

Likely Homer +0.4% +0.9% 1%

No Doubter -0.4% +0.4% 20%

Routine Flyout -5.0% +2.4% 3%

Pop up -1.4% +5.0%

31.0% of Nathaniel Lowe's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 6.7% higher than the league average. 23.3% of batted balls allowed by Caleb Thielbar are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -0.7% +2.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.0% +1.4% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.3% +2.0% 19%

94 to 99 mph -1.6% -4.6% 24%

Above 100 mph +6.7% -1.0%

8.2% of Nathaniel Lowe's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 3.3% lower than the league average. 10.7% of batted balls allowed by Caleb Thielbar are hit at this angle, which is 0.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +5.1% -1.3% 12%

-10 to 0° +1.8% -4.6% 8%

1 to 6° +1.1% -1.7% 18%

7 to 18° +0.8% +2.3% 15%

19 to 28° -0.7% -2.3% 11%

29 to 38° -3.3% -0.8% 7%

39 to 50° -2.6% +1.3% 8%

Above 50° -2.3% +7.1%

Nathaniel Lowe has 7 plate appearances against Caleb Thielbar in the last 3 years. He is 3 for 7 with 2 strikeouts.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	7	7	3	0	0	3	2	0	0.429
Expected From Contact →			2.29	0.00	0.46	1.82			0.327

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-08-16	Single			65%	34%
2023-08-26	Strikeout
2022-08-22	Lineout		2%	8%	90%
2022-08-20	Single		4%	88%	8%
2022-08-19	Single		38%	20%	42%
2022-07-10	Flyout		1%		98%
2022-07-08	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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