Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Nathaniel Lowe

matchup for Zack Wheeler

394th out of 436 (Worst 10%)

Zack Wheeler

matchup for Nathaniel Lowe

532nd out of 567 (Worst 6%)

Moderate advantage for Wheeler

Nathaniel Lowe has a 29.9% chance of reaching base vs Zack Wheeler, which is 5.5% lower than Lowe's typical expectations, and 4.3% higher than batters facing Wheeler.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	29.9%	17.9%	3.3%	2.9%	11.7%	12.0%	33.6%
Lowe	-5.5	-4.6	+0.4	-1.7	-3.3	-0.9	+9.5
Wheeler	+4.3	+1.3	+0.4	-0.4	+1.3	+2.9	-0.3

Nathaniel Lowe is slightly better vs right-handed pitching. Zack Wheeler is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Lowe has a C grade vs this particular release point.

Zack Wheeler throws a 4-seam fastball 42% of the time. Nathaniel Lowe has a D+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

42%

Slider (R)

21%

Sinker (R)

19%

Curve (R)

11%

13% of Zack Wheeler's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Nathaniel Lowe has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 13%

+2%

Strong Challenge 7%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Weak Challenge 8%

Meatball 3%

-3%

Non-Competitive 9%

-4%

32% of Zack Wheeler's pitches are classified as Fast Velocity, which is 17% higher than the MLB average. Nathaniel Lowe has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Fast Velo 32%

+17%

Fastball (R) 64%

+11%

14.1% of Nathaniel Lowe's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.8% lower than the league average. Zack Wheeler strikes out 21.0% of the batters he faces, which is 7.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout -0.8% +7.8% 2%

Walk +4.3% -2.6% 41%

In Play -3.5% -5.2% 39%

On Base +6.6% -6.5% 31%

Hit +2.3% -3.8% 14%

Single +1.1% -1.5% 13%

2B / 3B +1.2% -1.4% 3%

Home Run 0.0% -1.0%

40.2% of Nathaniel Lowe's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.7% higher than the league average. Zack Wheeler induces Standard Grounders at a 41.0% rate, which is 6.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.3% -0.6% 34%

Standard Grounder +5.7% +6.6% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.9% -1.3% 14%

Low Screamer -2.0% +2.5% 9%

Rising Liner +0.9% -0.8% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.0% -1.8% 3%

Likely Homer +0.2% -1.0% 1%

No Doubter -0.4% -0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout -4.9% -4.0% 3%

Pop up -1.4% +0.7%

30.9% of Nathaniel Lowe's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 6.6% higher than the league average. 21.7% of batted balls allowed by Zack Wheeler are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.0% +5.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.0% +1.4% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.0% -1.1% 19%

94 to 99 mph -1.6% -3.4% 24%

Above 100 mph +6.6% -2.6%

8.2% of Nathaniel Lowe's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 3.3% lower than the league average. 9.8% of batted balls allowed by Zack Wheeler are hit at this angle, which is 1.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +5.0% +3.8% 12%

-10 to 0° +1.8% -0.3% 8%

1 to 6° +1.3% -0.8% 18%

7 to 18° +0.8% +0.6% 15%

19 to 28° -0.7% -0.4% 11%

29 to 38° -3.3% -1.7% 7%

39 to 50° -2.5% -0.7% 8%

Above 50° -2.3% -0.5%

Nathaniel Lowe has 13 plate appearances against Zack Wheeler in the last 3 years. He is 4 for 11 with a double and 2 walks

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	13	11	4	0	1	3	5	2	0.364
Expected From Contact →			2.64	0.00	0.35	2.29			0.240

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2025-03-27	Strikeout
2025-03-27	Strikeout
2024-05-23	Single		4%	87%	9%
2024-05-23	Strikeout
2024-05-23	Walk
2023-04-01	Single			91%	8%
2023-04-01	Double		28%	5%	67%
2023-04-01	Strikeout
2022-06-22	Field Error
2022-06-22	Walk
2022-05-04	Single			45%	54%
2022-05-04	Groundout		2%		97%
2022-05-04	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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