Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Tyler Stephenson

matchup for Mitch Keller

283rd out of 436 (Worst 35%)

Mitch Keller

matchup for T. Stephenson

192nd out of 567 (Best 35%)

Moderate advantage for Stephenson

Tyler Stephenson has a 33.3% chance of reaching base vs Mitch Keller, which is 1.6% higher than Stephenson's typical expectations, and 1.2% higher than batters facing Keller.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	33.3%	24.3%	2.7%	5.6%	16.0%	9.1%	26.9%
Stephenson	+1.6	+3.1	+0.2	+0.3	+2.5	-1.4	+0.3
Keller	+1.2	-0.1	0.0	+0.4	-0.5	+1.3	+1.3

Tyler Stephenson is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Mitch Keller is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Stephenson has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Mitch Keller throws a 4-seam fastball 34% of the time. Tyler Stephenson has a C grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

34%

Slider (R)

21%

Sinker (R)

19%

Cutter (R)

12%

Curve (R)

11%

13% of Mitch Keller's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Tyler Stephenson has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 13%

+2%

Weak Challenge 10%

+2%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Strong Challenge 5%

+0%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Non-Competitive 12%

-1%

Chaser 5%

-1%

Likely Ball 18%

-1%

Meatball 4%

-3%

64% of Mitch Keller's pitches are classified as Fastball Pitches, which is 10% higher than the MLB average. Tyler Stephenson has a B grade against this type of pitch from right handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Fastball (R) 64%

+10%

Fast Velo 24%

+9%

15.0% of Tyler Stephenson's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.6% higher than the league average. Mitch Keller strikes out 16.1% of the batters he faces, which is 1.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout +0.6% +1.0% 4%

Walk +1.5% -1.9% 40%

In Play -2.1% +0.8% 39%

On Base +0.2% +0.9% 31%

Hit -1.3% +2.8% 14%

Single -0.9% +1.2% 13%

2B / 3B -0.5% +1.6% 3%

Home Run +0.2% +0.0%

40.3% of Tyler Stephenson's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.9% higher than the league average. Mitch Keller induces Standard Grounders at a 35.2% rate, which is 0.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.5% -0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder +5.9% +0.8% 7%

Hard Grounder +2.2% -1.1% 14%

Low Screamer -5.8% +1.9% 9%

Rising Liner +1.4% +1.7% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.0% -0.6% 3%

Likely Homer -1.6% +0.1% 1%

No Doubter -0.5% +0.0% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.4% -2.5% 3%

Pop up -1.7% 0.0%

25.1% of Tyler Stephenson's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 0.8% higher than the league average. 24.8% of batted balls allowed by Mitch Keller are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.7% -1.2% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.0% +2.4% 18%

87 to 93 mph +0.5% -1.8% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.5% +0.2% 24%

Above 100 mph +0.8% +0.5%

10.7% of Tyler Stephenson's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.7% lower than the league average. 12.6% of batted balls allowed by Mitch Keller are hit at this angle, which is 1.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +1.8% +1.7% 12%

-10 to 0° +2.2% -2.2% 8%

1 to 6° +1.6% -0.4% 18%

7 to 18° +1.4% +1.7% 15%

19 to 28° -2.4% -0.9% 11%

29 to 38° -0.7% +1.2% 7%

39 to 50° -0.3% -0.2% 8%

Above 50° -3.5% -1.0%

Tyler Stephenson has 17 plate appearances against Mitch Keller in the last 3 years. He is 6 for 17 with a home run and 2 doubles and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	17	17	6	1	2	3	5	0	0.353
Expected From Contact →			4.11	1.58	1.83	0.70			0.242

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-09-20	Single		1%	35%	64%
2024-09-20	Double	2%	82%	5%	11%
2024-09-20	Home Run	72%	17%		11%
2024-06-25	Triple	25%	14%		61%
2024-06-25	Flyout				100%
2024-06-25	Groundout			4%	96%
2023-08-13	Strikeout
2023-08-13	GIDP			7%	93%
2023-08-13	Forceout			4%	96%
2023-04-21	Strikeout
2023-04-21	Single	53%	43%	2%	3%
2023-04-21	Flyout	6%	26%	1%	67%
2023-03-30	GIDP			3%	97%
2023-03-30	Single			8%	92%
2023-03-30	Strikeout
2022-05-13	Strikeout
2022-05-13	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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