Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Nick Fortes

matchup for Aaron Nola

338th out of 436 (Worst 23%)

Aaron Nola

matchup for Nick Fortes

301st out of 567 (Worst 47%)

Moderate advantage for Fortes

Nick Fortes has a 30.4% chance of reaching base vs Aaron Nola, which is 0.2% higher than Fortes's typical expectations, and 0.9% higher than batters facing Nola.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.4%	24.4%	2.5%	6.6%	15.3%	6.0%	20.9%
Fortes	-0.2	+1.0	+0.3	+1.6	-0.9	-1.1	+5.1
Nola	+0.9	+2.0	-0.5	+0.3	+2.2	-1.1	-10.0

Nick Fortes is worse vs right-handed pitching. Aaron Nola is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Fortes has a D grade vs this particular release point.

Aaron Nola throws a Kn-Curve 30% of the time. Nick Fortes hasn't faced this pitch from right handers very often

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Kn-Curve (R)

30%

4-Seam (R)

30%

Sinker (R)

20%

Changeup (R)

12%

Cutter (R)

8% of Aaron Nola's pitches are classified as Chasers, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Nick Fortes hasn't faced this type of pitch very often.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Chaser 8%

+2%

Edge Painter 19%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

+0%

Weak Challenge 8%

Likely Ball 19%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Non-Competitive 9%

-4%

26% of Aaron Nola's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 21% higher than the MLB average. Nick Fortes hasn't faced this type of pitch enough to assign a grade.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 26%

+21%

Extreme Slow Velo 23%

+18%

Large Break 22%

+18%

8.8% of Nick Fortes's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 9.8% lower than the league average. Aaron Nola strikes out 20.3% of the batters he faces, which is 6.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

18%

Strikeout -9.8% +6.3% 6%

Walk -4.2% -2.8% 34%

In Play +14.0% -3.5% 39%

On Base -3.2% -4.8% 31%

Hit +1.0% -2.0% 14%

Single +1.3% -0.8% 13%

2B / 3B +1.6% -0.7% 3%

Home Run -1.8% -0.5%

32.3% of Nick Fortes's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 2.2% lower than the league average. Aaron Nola induces Standard Grounders at a 37.3% rate, which is 2.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +1.2% 0.0% 34%

Standard Grounder -2.2% +2.9% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.8% -0.6% 14%

Low Screamer +2.8% -1.6% 9%

Rising Liner -1.7% +0.5% 4%

Maybe Homer -1.2% -0.3% 3%

Likely Homer -0.4% +0.1% 1%

No Doubter -1.1% +0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout -2.1% -0.4% 3%

Pop up +5.3% -0.7%

21.1% of Nick Fortes's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.2% lower than the league average. 23.6% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Nola are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +3.0% +0.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph +3.3% -0.2% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.0% +2.2% 19%

94 to 99 mph -4.1% -1.9% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.2% -0.7%

7.2% of Nick Fortes's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 4.3% lower than the league average. 10.9% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Nola are hit at this angle, which is 0.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +3.1% -0.8% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.8% +1.8% 8%

1 to 6° -2.0% +0.2% 18%

7 to 18° -2.7% +0.8% 15%

19 to 28° -0.8% +0.1% 11%

29 to 38° -4.3% -0.6% 7%

39 to 50° -0.4% -0.2% 8%

Above 50° +7.9% -1.3%

Nick Fortes has 17 plate appearances against Aaron Nola in the last 3 years. He is 3 for 16 with a double and a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	17	16	3	0	1	2	3	1	0.188
Expected From Contact →			3.04	0.01	1.37	1.66			0.190

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-09-07	Pop Out				100%
2024-09-07	Single			50%	50%
2024-06-29	Double		87%	8%	4%
2024-06-29	Groundout			8%	92%
2024-06-29	Strikeout
2023-07-09	Flyout
2023-07-09	Flyout
2023-07-09	Flyout
2023-04-11	Single			85%	14%
2023-04-11	Lineout		47%	9%	44%
2023-04-11	Strikeout
2022-09-06	Pop Out				99%
2022-09-06	Strikeout
2022-09-06	Walk
2022-07-17	Groundout			5%	95%
2022-07-17	Flyout	1%			98%
2022-07-17	Flyout		1%		98%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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