Matchup Machine

Kyle Tucker

Worst 2% of matchups for Kyle Gibson

Kyle Gibson

Worst 45% of matchups for Kyle Tucker

Extreme advantage for Tucker

+10

Model Prediction
Prediction	4.4%	5.2%	14.2%	11.0%	16.6%
MLB (+/-)	+1.6	+0.9	+0.2	+1.3	-8.7
Tucker	+0.1	+0.1	+1.3	-2.3	-2.2
Gibson	+1.1	+0.4	-1.2	+2.9	-4.9

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

4.4%

5.2%

14.2%

11.0%

16.6%

MLB (+/-)

+1.6

+0.9

+0.2

+1.3

-8.7

Tucker

+0.1

+1.3

-2.3

-2.2

Gibson

+1.1

+0.4

-1.2

+2.9

-4.9

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	14	13	4	1	0	3	0	1	.308
Expected From Contact →			4.02	1.16	0.48	2.38			.309

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Home Run	98%			1%
2023-09-19	Flyout	16%	17%		67%
2021-07-24	Pop Out		4%	12%	84%
2021-07-24	Walk
2021-07-24	Lineout		1%	18%	81%
2021-05-21	Flyout	2%	4%		94%
2021-05-21	Single		2%	39%	59%
2021-05-21	Groundout		4%	53%	43%
2021-05-16	Lineout		11%	4%	84%
2021-05-16	Flyout		2%	3%	96%
2021-05-16	Flyout				100%
2020-09-26	Single		1%	79%	20%
2020-09-26	Single		2%	30%	69%
2020-09-26	Flyout				100%
2020-09-16	Flyout		3%	48%	49%
2020-09-16	Strikeout
2020-09-16	Lineout		80%	9%	11%
2020-09-16	Single		2%	38%	60%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	49%	90	LHB vs RHP	12	48%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

49%

LHB vs RHP

48%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	48%	95	Fastball	16	56%
⭐	27%	100	Breaking	58	27%
	15%	83	Offspeed	43	17%
			------------------
⭐	43%	77	Sinker	28	26%
⭐	48%	103	Slider	58	19%
⭐⭐	48%	88	Cutter	21	18%
⭐	57%	98	Changeup	38	17%
⭐	49%	83	Four-Seam FB	31	12%
	50%	77	Curveball	48	8%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

48%

Fastball

56%

⭐

27%

100

Breaking

27%

15%

Offspeed

17%

------------------

⭐

43%

Sinker

26%

⭐

48%

103

Slider

19%

⭐⭐

48%

Cutter

18%

⭐

57%

Changeup

17%

⭐

49%

Four-Seam FB

12%

50%

Curveball

	Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	71%	95	Bottom of zone	17	14%
	66%	56	Away / Arm Side	-4	11%
⭐⭐	74%	94	In / Glove Side	24	10%
⭐⭐	78%	100	Top of zone	21	9%
	90%	17	Middle	32	4%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

71%

Bottom of zone

14%

66%

Away / Arm Side

-4

11%

⭐⭐

74%

In / Glove Side

10%

⭐⭐

78%

100

Top of zone

90%

Middle

Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
38%	80	Below the zone	50	44%
31%	49	In / Glove Side	37	26%
24%	52	Away / Arm Side	51	24%
27%	33	Above the zone	25	16%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

38%

Below the zone

44%

31%

In / Glove Side

26%

24%

Away / Arm Side

24%

27%

Above the zone

16%

	Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	53%	88	Batter Ahead	2	28%
⭐⭐	60%	107	2 Strikes	38	27%
	47%	95	Batter Behind	55	26%
⭐	44%	70	First Pitch	24	26%
⭐⭐	67%	125	3 Balls	0	8%
⭐⭐	72%	123	Full Count	-20	5%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

53%

Batter Ahead

28%

⭐⭐

60%

107

2 Strikes

27%

47%

Batter Behind

26%

⭐

44%

First Pitch

26%

⭐⭐

67%

125

3 Balls

⭐⭐

72%

123

Full Count

-20