matchup for Ryne Nelson
matchup for R. Mountcastle
1
Ryan Mountcastle has a 29.2% chance of reaching base vs Ryne Nelson, which is 1.6% lower than Mountcastle's typical expectations, and 0.9% lower than batters facing Nelson.
| Reach | Hit | HR | 2B / 3B | 1B | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction | 29.2% | 25.2% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 17.1% | 4.0% | 26.8% |
| Mountcastle | -1.6 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.5 | +0.4 | -1.5 | +2.4 |
| Nelson | -0.9 | +1.8 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +1.3 | -2.7 | +0.7 |
Ryan Mountcastle is worse vs right-handed pitching. Ryne Nelson is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Mountcastle has a B- grade vs this particular release point.
Ryne Nelson throws a 4-seam fastball 56% of the time. Ryan Mountcastle has a C grade against right-handed 4-seamers
Pitch Type
% of Arsenal
4-Seam (R)
56%
Cutter (R)
15%
Slider (R)
11%
Changeup (R)
11%
Curve (R)
6%
15% of Ryne Nelson's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Ryan Mountcastle has an A grade against this type of pitch.
Pitch Label
% vs MLB
Mid Challenge
15%
+4%
Strong Challenge
6%
+1%
Edge Painter
18%
+1%
Meatball
6%
+0%
Fringe Miss
12%
0%
Likely Ball
19%
-1%
Weak Challenge
7%
-1%
Chaser
5%
-1%
Non-Competitive
9%
-3%
29% of Ryne Nelson's pitches are classified as High Ride, which is 19% higher than the MLB average. Ryan Mountcastle has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.
Physical Trait
% vs MLB
High Ride
29%
+19%
Fastball (R)
72%
+18%
Small Break
25%
+16%
Fast Velo
29%
+14%
14.4% of Ryan Mountcastle's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.3% lower than the league average. Ryne Nelson strikes out 13.3% of the batters he faces, which is 2.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.
14%
Strikeout
-0.3%
-2.9%
6%
Walk
-3.3%
-2.2%
38%
In Play
+3.7%
+5.2%
39%
On Base
+5.1%
+0.3%
31%
Hit
+8.5%
+2.6%
14%
Single
+3.8%
+1.0%
13%
2B / 3B
+4.2%
+1.5%
3%
Home Run
+0.5%
+0.1%
30.8% of Ryan Mountcastle's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.6% lower than the league average. Ryne Nelson induces Standard Grounders at a 35.2% rate, which is 0.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.
0%
Squib/Bunt
-0.3%
-0.5%
34%
Standard Grounder
-3.6%
+0.8%
7%
Hard Grounder
+1.9%
-2.3%
14%
Low Screamer
+0.9%
+0.8%
9%
Rising Liner
-1.3%
+2.9%
4%
Maybe Homer
+1.7%
-1.2%
3%
Likely Homer
-0.1%
-1.0%
1%
No Doubter
+0.5%
-0.2%
20%
Routine Flyout
+0.8%
+1.2%
3%
Pop up
-0.4%
-0.6%
29.6% of Ryan Mountcastle's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 5.3% higher than the league average. 29.3% of batted balls allowed by Ryne Nelson are hit at above 100 mph, which is 5.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.
16%
Below 75 mph
-1.5%
-1.5%
21%
75 to 86 mph
-0.5%
-1.9%
18%
87 to 93 mph
-0.9%
+0.4%
19%
94 to 99 mph
-2.4%
-2.0%
24%
Above 100 mph
+5.3%
+5.0%
12.3% of Ryan Mountcastle's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.8% higher than the league average. 10.6% of batted balls allowed by Ryne Nelson are hit at this angle, which is 0.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.
17%
Below -10°
-3.1%
+2.1%
12%
-10 to 0°
+0.7%
-0.3%
8%
1 to 6°
+0.9%
-2.4%
18%
7 to 18°
-1.0%
+5.0%
15%
19 to 28°
0.0%
-4.3%
11%
29 to 38°
+0.8%
-0.9%
7%
39 to 50°
+0.3%
+0.7%
8%
Above 50°
+1.3%
+0.1%
Ryan Mountcastle has 3 plate appearances against Ryne Nelson in the last 3 years. He is 3 for 3 with 3 doubles and
| PA | AB | H | HR | 2/3B | 1B | K | BB | Avg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Expected From Contact → | 2.43 | 0.00 | 1.88 | 0.54 | 0.809 | ||||
| Expected From Contact | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Outcome | HR | 2/3B | 1B | Out |
| 2024-05-11 | Double | 58% | 30% | 11% | |
| 2024-05-11 | Triple | 51% | 18% | 32% | |
| 2024-05-11 | Double | 79% | 6% | 14% | |
Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.
