Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Ryan Mountcastle

matchup for Cole Ragans

277th out of 436 (Worst 37%)

Cole Ragans

matchup for R. Mountcastle

443rd out of 567 (Worst 22%)

Leans in favor of Ragans

Ryan Mountcastle has a 28.9% chance of reaching base vs Cole Ragans, which is 2.5% lower than Mountcastle's typical expectations, and 1.2% lower than batters facing Ragans.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	28.9%	22.5%	2.7%	5.9%	13.9%	6.4%	29.8%
Mountcastle	-2.5	-3.3	0.0	-0.2	-3.1	+0.8	+4.6
Ragans	-1.2	+4.2	+0.4	+1.4	+2.5	-5.4	+0.5

Ryan Mountcastle is better vs left-handed pitching. Cole Ragans is left handed with an over-the-top delivery. Mountcastle has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Cole Ragans throws a 4-seam fastball 42% of the time. Ryan Mountcastle has a B grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

42%

Changeup (L)

24%

Cutter (L)

13%

Slider (L)

10%

Kn-Curve (L)

21% of Cole Ragans's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Ryan Mountcastle has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 21%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Fringe Miss 14%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Meatball 4%

-2%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Weak Challenge 7%

-2%

43% of Cole Ragans's pitches are classified as Large Break Toward Third Base, which is 22% higher than the MLB average. Ryan Mountcastle has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Large Break 43%

+22%

Offspeed (L) 24%

+12%

Very Fast Velo 14%

+11%

High Ride 20%

+10%

14.6% of Ryan Mountcastle's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.1% higher than the league average. Cole Ragans strikes out 18.7% of the batters he faces, which is 4.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout +0.1% +4.5% 6%

Walk -3.4% +1.2% 38%

In Play +3.3% -5.8% 39%

On Base +5.4% -1.8% 31%

Hit +8.8% -3.0% 14%

Single +3.9% -1.6% 13%

2B / 3B +4.4% -1.2% 3%

Home Run +0.5% -0.2%

30.8% of Ryan Mountcastle's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.6% lower than the league average. Cole Ragans induces Standard Grounders at a 31.0% rate, which is 3.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.3% +2.2% 34%

Standard Grounder -3.6% -3.4% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.9% +2.6% 14%

Low Screamer +1.0% +0.6% 9%

Rising Liner -1.3% +1.2% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.7% -0.8% 3%

Likely Homer -0.1% -2.2% 1%

No Doubter +0.5% +0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.6% -2.2% 3%

Pop up -0.4% +2.0%

29.6% of Ryan Mountcastle's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 5.3% higher than the league average. 17.3% of batted balls allowed by Cole Ragans are hit at above 100 mph, which is 7.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.5% +3.5% 21%

75 to 86 mph -0.4% -0.8% 18%

87 to 93 mph -1.1% +5.7% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.4% -1.4% 24%

Above 100 mph +5.3% -7.0%

12.3% of Ryan Mountcastle's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.8% higher than the league average. 9.6% of batted balls allowed by Cole Ragans are hit at this angle, which is 1.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.2% +4.1% 12%

-10 to 0° +0.7% -5.7% 8%

1 to 6° +0.9% +2.9% 18%

7 to 18° -0.8% +2.4% 15%

19 to 28° +0.0% -5.4% 11%

29 to 38° +0.8% -1.8% 7%

39 to 50° +0.2% +0.0% 8%

Above 50° +1.4% +3.4%

Ryan Mountcastle has 8 plate appearances against Cole Ragans in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 7 with a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	8	7	1	0	0	1	3	1	0.143
Expected From Contact →			1.63	0.00	0.04	1.58			0.232

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-10-01	Flyout		2%	21%	77%
2024-10-01	Strikeout
2024-10-01	Strikeout
2024-04-20	Single			52%	48%
2024-04-20	Strikeout
2024-04-03	Groundout			9%	91%
2024-04-03	Lineout		2%	77%	21%
2024-04-03	Walk

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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