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Ryan Mountcastle

matchup for Tanner Houck

231st out of 436 (Worst 47%)

Tanner Houck

matchup for R. Mountcastle

360th out of 567 (Worst 37%)

Leans in favor of Mountcastle

Ryan Mountcastle has a 30.6% chance of reaching base vs Tanner Houck, which is 0.8% lower than Mountcastle's typical expectations, and 1.1% lower than batters facing Houck.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.6%	24.3%	2.1%	5.0%	17.2%	6.4%	19.9%
Mountcastle	-0.8	-1.5	-0.7	-1.1	+0.2	+0.8	-5.3
Houck	-1.1	+2.2	-0.1	+0.6	+1.6	-3.3	+0.2

Ryan Mountcastle is worse vs right-handed pitching. Tanner Houck is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Mountcastle has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Tanner Houck throws a Slider 40% of the time. Ryan Mountcastle has a B grade against right-handed Sliders

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Slider (R)

40%

Sinker (R)

28%

Splitter (R)

15%

4-Seam (R)

14%

10% of Tanner Houck's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Ryan Mountcastle has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 10%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Strong Challenge 5%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Meatball 4%

-2%

53% of Tanner Houck's pitches are classified as Medium Drop, which is 41% higher than the MLB average. Ryan Mountcastle has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Drop 53%

+41%

Large Break 17%

+12%

Breaking (R) 40%

+9%

Very Slow Velo 22%

+9%

14.6% of Ryan Mountcastle's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.1% higher than the league average. Tanner Houck strikes out 14.2% of the batters he faces, which is 1.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout +0.1% -1.6% 6%

Walk -3.4% +0.2% 38%

In Play +3.3% +1.4% 39%

On Base +5.4% +0.4% 31%

Hit +8.8% +0.3% 14%

Single +3.9% +0.4% 13%

2B / 3B +4.4% +0.7% 3%

Home Run +0.5% -0.9%

30.8% of Ryan Mountcastle's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.6% lower than the league average. Tanner Houck induces Standard Grounders at a 41.9% rate, which is 7.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.3% -0.7% 34%

Standard Grounder -3.6% +7.5% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.9% +2.4% 14%

Low Screamer +1.0% -5.6% 9%

Rising Liner -1.3% +2.9% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.7% -1.1% 3%

Likely Homer -0.1% -1.1% 1%

No Doubter +0.5% -0.6% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.6% -2.8% 3%

Pop up -0.4% -0.9%

29.6% of Ryan Mountcastle's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 5.3% higher than the league average. 30.6% of batted balls allowed by Tanner Houck are hit at above 100 mph, which is 6.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.5% -0.8% 21%

75 to 86 mph -0.4% -0.5% 18%

87 to 93 mph -1.1% -4.3% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.4% -0.6% 24%

Above 100 mph +5.3% +6.3%

12.3% of Ryan Mountcastle's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.8% higher than the league average. 10.1% of batted balls allowed by Tanner Houck are hit at this angle, which is 1.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.2% +7.8% 12%

-10 to 0° +0.7% +1.7% 8%

1 to 6° +0.9% +1.7% 18%

7 to 18° -0.8% -0.1% 15%

19 to 28° +0.0% -4.1% 11%

29 to 38° +0.8% -1.3% 7%

39 to 50° +0.2% -2.7% 8%

Above 50° +1.4% -2.9%

Ryan Mountcastle has 11 plate appearances against Tanner Houck in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 11 with 3 strikeouts.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	11	11	2	0	0	2	3	0	0.182
Expected From Contact →			2.56	0.01	0.28	2.27			0.233

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-10-01	Lineout		4%	2%	94%
2023-09-08	Strikeout
2023-09-08	Strikeout
2023-09-08	Pop Out				100%
2023-04-26	Single			83%	17%
2023-04-26	Groundout		16%	7%	76%
2023-04-26	Flyout		4%		95%
2023-04-02	Groundout			8%	92%
2023-04-02	Strikeout
2022-05-29	GIDP			37%	63%
2022-04-29	Single		3%	90%	7%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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