Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Ryan Mountcastle

matchup for Jose Berrios

371st out of 436 (Worst 15%)

Jose Berrios

matchup for R. Mountcastle

113th out of 567 (Best 21%)

Extreme advantage for Mountcastle

Ryan Mountcastle has a 35.9% chance of reaching base vs Jose Berrios, which is 3.7% higher than Mountcastle's typical expectations, and 2.8% higher than batters facing Berrios.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	35.9%	31.2%	2.7%	6.8%	21.6%	4.7%	23.3%
Mountcastle	+3.7	+4.5	0.0	+0.9	+3.6	-0.8	-2.3
Berrios	+2.8	+6.3	-0.2	+0.9	+5.6	-3.5	+0.2

Ryan Mountcastle is worse vs right-handed pitching. Jose Berrios is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Mountcastle has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Jose Berrios throws a Sinker 30% of the time. Ryan Mountcastle has a B grade against right-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (R)

30%

Curve (R)

30%

4-Seam (R)

23%

Changeup (R)

16%

18% of Jose Berrios's pitches are classified as Edge Painters, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Ryan Mountcastle has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Weak Challenge 9%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Likely Ball 20%

+0%

Mid Challenge 11%

Strong Challenge 5%

Meatball 4%

-2%

Non-Competitive 10%

-3%

31% of Jose Berrios's pitches are classified as Extreme Break Toward Third Base, which is 17% higher than the MLB average. Ryan Mountcastle has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Break 31%

+17%

Low Ride 39%

+15%

Very Slow Velo 26%

+12%

14.6% of Ryan Mountcastle's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.1% higher than the league average. Jose Berrios strikes out 15.5% of the batters he faces, which is 0.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout +0.1% +0.7% 6%

Walk -3.3% -0.8% 38%

In Play +3.2% +0.1% 39%

On Base +6.1% -0.3% 31%

Hit +9.4% +0.6% 14%

Single +4.1% +0.2% 13%

2B / 3B +4.9% +0.2% 3%

Home Run +0.5% +0.2%

30.9% of Ryan Mountcastle's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.5% lower than the league average. Jose Berrios induces Standard Grounders at a 35.1% rate, which is 0.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.3% -0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder -3.5% +0.7% 7%

Hard Grounder +2.0% -0.3% 14%

Low Screamer +1.0% -0.4% 9%

Rising Liner -1.3% +0.3% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.6% +0.6% 3%

Likely Homer -0.1% +0.1% 1%

No Doubter +0.5% +0.0% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.4% -0.5% 3%

Pop up -0.4% -0.2%

29.6% of Ryan Mountcastle's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 5.4% higher than the league average. 26.0% of batted balls allowed by Jose Berrios are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.6% +1.1% 21%

75 to 86 mph -0.4% -1.5% 18%

87 to 93 mph -1.0% -0.8% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.3% -0.5% 24%

Above 100 mph +5.4% +1.7%

12.2% of Ryan Mountcastle's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.8% higher than the league average. 11.8% of batted balls allowed by Jose Berrios are hit at this angle, which is 0.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.2% -0.9% 12%

-10 to 0° +0.9% +0.5% 8%

1 to 6° +1.0% +0.2% 18%

7 to 18° -0.9% +0.4% 15%

19 to 28° 0.0% +0.2% 11%

29 to 38° +0.8% +0.4% 7%

39 to 50° +0.0% +0.3% 8%

Above 50° +1.4% -1.0%

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	22	21	2	1	1	0	5	1	0.095
Expected From Contact →			3.62	1.15	1.60	0.87			0.173

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2025-03-27	Lineout
2025-03-27	Strikeout
2025-03-27	Double
2024-06-05	Pop Out			2%	98%
2024-06-05	Strikeout
2024-06-05	Strikeout
2024-05-13	Lineout		6%	49%	45%
2024-05-13	Groundout			10%	90%
2024-05-13	Pop Out				99%
2023-08-24	Groundout			6%	94%
2023-08-24	Lineout				99%
2023-08-24	Lineout	2%	14%	1%	83%
2022-10-03	Strikeout
2022-10-03	Flyout				99%
2022-10-03	Forceout			12%	88%
2022-09-17	Hit By Pitch
2022-09-05	Groundout			4%	96%
2022-09-05	Walk
2022-09-05	Lineout	14%	38%	1%	47%
2022-06-15	Flyout		2%		98%
2022-06-15	Strikeout
2022-06-15	Home Run	100%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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