Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Ryan Mountcastle

matchup for Michael Wacha

349th out of 436 (Worst 20%)

Michael Wacha

matchup for R. Mountcastle

201st out of 567 (Best 36%)

Strong advantage for Mountcastle

Ryan Mountcastle has a 32.2% chance of reaching base vs Michael Wacha, which is 0.8% higher than Mountcastle's typical expectations, and 1.1% higher than batters facing Wacha.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	32.2%	27.0%	3.0%	6.0%	18.0%	5.2%	21.6%
Mountcastle	+0.8	+1.2	+0.3	0.0	+1.0	-0.4	-3.5
Wacha	+1.1	+3.9	+0.3	+0.9	+2.7	-2.8	+0.3

Ryan Mountcastle is worse vs right-handed pitching. Michael Wacha is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Mountcastle has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Michael Wacha throws a Changeup 32% of the time. Ryan Mountcastle has an A grade against right-handed Changeups

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Changeup (R)

32%

4-Seam (R)

31%

Cutter (R)

17%

Sinker (R)

11%

Curve (R)

8% of Michael Wacha's pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Ryan Mountcastle has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Meatball 8%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+0%

Weak Challenge 8%

Strong Challenge 5%

-1%

Likely Ball 18%

-2%

Non-Competitive 10%

-3%

32% of Michael Wacha's pitches are classified as Offspeed Pitches, which is 20% higher than the MLB average. Ryan Mountcastle has an A grade against this type of pitch from right handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Offspeed (R) 32%

+20%

Medium Break 30%

+11%

High Ride 19%

+9%

14.6% of Ryan Mountcastle's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.1% higher than the league average. Michael Wacha strikes out 16.3% of the batters he faces, which is 0.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout +0.1% +0.4% 6%

Walk -3.4% -2.0% 38%

In Play +3.3% +1.5% 39%

On Base +5.4% -3.0% 31%

Hit +8.8% -1.0% 14%

Single +3.9% -0.6% 13%

2B / 3B +4.4% -0.5% 3%

Home Run +0.5% +0.1%

30.8% of Ryan Mountcastle's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.6% lower than the league average. Michael Wacha induces Standard Grounders at a 33.6% rate, which is 0.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.3% -0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder -3.6% -0.8% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.9% +0.5% 14%

Low Screamer +1.0% +1.5% 9%

Rising Liner -1.3% +0.7% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.7% -0.3% 3%

Likely Homer -0.1% -0.1% 1%

No Doubter +0.5% 0.0% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.6% -1.8% 3%

Pop up -0.4% +0.6%

29.6% of Ryan Mountcastle's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 5.3% higher than the league average. 26.9% of batted balls allowed by Michael Wacha are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.5% +0.0% 21%

75 to 86 mph -0.4% +0.4% 18%

87 to 93 mph -1.1% -0.3% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.4% -2.7% 24%

Above 100 mph +5.3% +2.6%

12.3% of Ryan Mountcastle's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.8% higher than the league average. 10.7% of batted balls allowed by Michael Wacha are hit at this angle, which is 0.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.2% -2.9% 12%

-10 to 0° +0.7% +1.7% 8%

1 to 6° +0.9% -0.8% 18%

7 to 18° -0.8% +2.8% 15%

19 to 28° +0.0% +0.9% 11%

29 to 38° +0.8% -0.7% 7%

39 to 50° +0.2% -1.6% 8%

Above 50° +1.4% +0.6%

Ryan Mountcastle has 11 plate appearances against Michael Wacha in the last 3 years. He is 5 for 11 with a home run and a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	11	11	5	1	1	3	2	0	0.455
Expected From Contact →			5.09	1.77	0.47	2.84			0.463

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-04-01	Groundout			31%	69%
2024-04-01	Home Run	98%	1%
2023-08-15	Groundout			21%	79%
2023-08-15	Single		5%	53%	42%
2022-09-27	Triple	42%	16%	1%	41%
2022-09-27	Strikeout
2022-09-10	Single
2022-09-10	Flyout	1%			98%
2022-09-10	Flyout	36%	4%		60%
2022-08-20	Single		20%	79%	1%
2022-08-20	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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