Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Austin Riley

matchup for Ryan Weathers

369th out of 436 (Worst 16%)

Ryan Weathers

matchup for Austin Riley

379th out of 567 (Worst 33%)

Moderate advantage for Riley

Austin Riley has a 32.2% chance of reaching base vs Ryan Weathers, which is 1.0% lower than Riley's typical expectations, and 2.3% higher than batters facing Weathers.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	32.2%	23.1%	2.9%	6.9%	13.4%	9.1%	27.3%
Riley	-1.0	-0.8	-0.9	+0.9	-0.8	-0.1	+0.7
Weathers	+2.3	+1.6	+0.8	+1.3	-0.5	+0.8	+2.6

Austin Riley is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. Ryan Weathers is left handed with an extreme release toward the first base side. Riley has an A+ grade vs this particular release point.

Ryan Weathers throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Austin Riley has an A- grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

44%

Slider (L)

25%

Changeup (L)

18%

Sinker (L)

13%

12% of Ryan Weathers's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Austin Riley has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Likely Ball 21%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Non-Competitive 13%

+0%

Fringe Miss 12%

Edge Painter 17%

Weak Challenge 8%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Chaser 5%

-1%

53% of Ryan Weathers's pitches are classified as Large Break Toward Third Base, which is 32% higher than the MLB average. Austin Riley has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Large Break 53%

+32%

Fast Velo 28%

+19%

Low Ride 37%

+14%

15.5% of Austin Riley's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 1.6% higher than the league average. Ryan Weathers strikes out 14.3% of the batters he faces, which is 2.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +1.6% -2.1% 4%

Walk -0.3% -0.6% 40%

In Play -1.3% +2.7% 39%

On Base +1.5% +0.9% 31%

Hit +1.8% +1.5% 14%

Single -0.7% +0.9% 13%

2B / 3B -0.3% +1.2% 3%

Home Run +2.8% -0.5%

27.7% of Austin Riley's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 6.7% lower than the league average. Ryan Weathers induces Standard Grounders at a 40.1% rate, which is 5.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.3% +0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder -6.7% +5.7% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.0% -0.6% 14%

Low Screamer -1.0% -1.1% 9%

Rising Liner +1.9% -1.3% 4%

Maybe Homer +2.4% +1.4% 3%

Likely Homer -0.4% -0.7% 1%

No Doubter +1.6% +0.5% 20%

Routine Flyout +2.1% -5.5% 3%

Pop up +0.5% +1.2%

35.6% of Austin Riley's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 11.3% higher than the league average. 25.4% of batted balls allowed by Ryan Weathers are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.7% +0.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph -2.8% +1.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.6% -0.7% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.2% -2.0% 24%

Above 100 mph +11.3% +1.1%

11.5% of Austin Riley's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.0% higher than the league average. 7.7% of batted balls allowed by Ryan Weathers are hit at this angle, which is 3.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.1% +3.9% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.8% +2.6% 8%

1 to 6° -2.3% +1.2% 18%

7 to 18° +2.8% -3.3% 15%

19 to 28° +1.3% +0.1% 11%

29 to 38° +0.0% -3.8% 7%

39 to 50° +0.9% +0.2% 8%

Above 50° +2.2% -0.9%

Austin Riley has 6 plate appearances against Ryan Weathers in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 5 with a home run, a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	5	1	1	0	0	2	1	0.200
Expected From Contact →			1.14	0.97	0.03	0.14			0.228

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-04-22	Strikeout
2024-04-22	Flyout				100%
2024-04-22	Walk
2023-04-17	GIDP			14%	86%
2023-04-17	Home Run	97%	2%
2023-04-17	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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