Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Austin Riley

matchup for Adrian Morejon

294th out of 436 (Worst 33%)

Adrian Morejon

matchup for Austin Riley

456th out of 567 (Worst 20%)

Leans in favor of Riley

Austin Riley has a 30.6% chance of reaching base vs Adrian Morejon, which is 2.5% lower than Riley's typical expectations, and 0.2% higher than batters facing Morejon.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.6%	22.0%	3.0%	5.0%	14.0%	8.6%	26.9%
Riley	-2.5	-1.9	-0.8	-0.9	-0.2	-0.6	+0.2
Morejon	+0.2	0.0	+0.6	+0.7	-1.2	+0.2	+1.9

Austin Riley is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. Adrian Morejon is left handed with a horizontal release toward the first base side. Riley has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Adrian Morejon throws a 4-seam fastball 43% of the time. Austin Riley has an A- grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

43%

Slider (L)

21%

Sinker (L)

18%

Curve (L)

Changeup (L)

14% of Adrian Morejon's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Austin Riley has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 14%

+3%

Weak Challenge 11%

+2%

Strong Challenge 7%

+2%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Chaser 6%

Likely Ball 18%

-1%

Non-Competitive 10%

-3%

Meatball 1%

-4%

39% of Adrian Morejon's pitches are classified as Very Fast Velocity, which is 35% higher than the MLB average. Austin Riley has a C- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Very Fast Velo 39%

+35%

Medium Break 34%

+15%

15.5% of Austin Riley's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 1.6% higher than the league average. Adrian Morejon strikes out 17.5% of the batters he faces, which is 1.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +1.6% +1.9% 4%

Walk -0.3% -0.8% 40%

In Play -1.3% -1.2% 39%

On Base +1.5% -0.4% 31%

Hit +1.8% +0.4% 14%

Single -0.7% +0.1% 13%

2B / 3B -0.3% +0.4% 3%

Home Run +2.8% -0.1%

27.7% of Austin Riley's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 6.7% lower than the league average. Adrian Morejon induces Standard Grounders at a 39.9% rate, which is 5.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.3% +0.6% 34%

Standard Grounder -6.7% +5.4% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.0% -0.9% 14%

Low Screamer -1.0% -1.3% 9%

Rising Liner +1.9% -0.7% 4%

Maybe Homer +2.4% +0.7% 3%

Likely Homer -0.4% -1.4% 1%

No Doubter +1.6% -0.7% 20%

Routine Flyout +2.1% -0.4% 3%

Pop up +0.5% -1.2%

35.6% of Austin Riley's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 11.3% higher than the league average. 21.4% of batted balls allowed by Adrian Morejon are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.7% +3.5% 21%

75 to 86 mph -2.8% +1.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.6% +1.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.2% -3.2% 24%

Above 100 mph +11.3% -2.9%

11.5% of Austin Riley's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.0% higher than the league average. 11.8% of batted balls allowed by Adrian Morejon are hit at this angle, which is 0.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.1% +6.7% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.8% -3.5% 8%

1 to 6° -2.3% +1.0% 18%

7 to 18° +2.8% -2.4% 15%

19 to 28° +1.3% +4.3% 11%

29 to 38° +0.0% +0.4% 7%

39 to 50° +0.9% -5.0% 8%

Above 50° +2.2% -1.5%

Austin Riley has 2 plate appearances against Adrian Morejon in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 2 with 2 strikeouts.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00			0.000

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2025-03-28	Strikeout
2024-07-13	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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