matchup for Dylan Cease
matchup for Austin Riley
2
Austin Riley has a 31.8% chance of reaching base vs Dylan Cease, which is 1.4% lower than Riley's typical expectations, and 1.9% higher than batters facing Cease.
| Reach | Hit | HR | 2B / 3B | 1B | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction | 31.8% | 20.7% | 2.8% | 5.7% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 26.8% |
| Riley | -1.4 | -2.6 | -0.9 | -0.1 | -1.6 | +1.2 | -0.4 |
| Cease | +1.9 | +1.1 | +0.7 | +1.4 | -0.9 | +0.8 | +0.3 |
Austin Riley is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Dylan Cease is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Riley has a B- grade vs this particular release point.
Dylan Cease throws a Slider 43% of the time. Austin Riley has an A grade against right-handed Sliders
Pitch Type
% of Arsenal
Slider (R)
43%
4-Seam (R)
42%
Kn-Curve (R)
12%
23% of Dylan Cease's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Austin Riley has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.
Pitch Label
% vs MLB
Likely Ball
23%
+4%
Strong Challenge
7%
+2%
Chaser
7%
+1%
Mid Challenge
12%
+1%
Fringe Miss
13%
+0%
Edge Painter
16%
-1%
Non-Competitive
11%
-2%
Weak Challenge
6%
-2%
Meatball
3%
-3%
55% of Dylan Cease's pitches are classified as Breaking Pitches, which is 24% higher than the MLB average. Austin Riley has an A grade against this type of pitch from right handers.
Physical Trait
% vs MLB
Breaking (R)
55%
+24%
Minimal Break
30%
+21%
Very Fast Velo
23%
+15%
High Ride
22%
+12%
16.0% of Austin Riley's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.4% higher than the league average. Dylan Cease strikes out 19.1% of the batters he faces, which is 6.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.
13%
Strikeout
+2.4%
+6.3%
4%
Walk
-0.4%
+1.0%
40%
In Play
-2.0%
-7.3%
39%
On Base
+1.0%
-3.9%
31%
Hit
+1.4%
-4.8%
14%
Single
-0.9%
-2.5%
13%
2B / 3B
-0.5%
-2.0%
3%
Home Run
+2.7%
-0.3%
27.7% of Austin Riley's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 6.7% lower than the league average. Dylan Cease induces Standard Grounders at a 31.2% rate, which is 3.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.
0%
Squib/Bunt
-0.3%
+0.6%
34%
Standard Grounder
-6.7%
-3.3%
7%
Hard Grounder
+0.0%
-2.0%
14%
Low Screamer
-1.0%
+1.9%
9%
Rising Liner
+1.9%
+2.0%
4%
Maybe Homer
+2.4%
-0.7%
3%
Likely Homer
-0.4%
+1.4%
1%
No Doubter
+1.6%
+0.3%
20%
Routine Flyout
+2.1%
-1.7%
3%
Pop up
+0.5%
+1.5%
35.6% of Austin Riley's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 11.3% higher than the league average. 25.3% of batted balls allowed by Dylan Cease are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.
16%
Below 75 mph
-2.7%
-0.6%
21%
75 to 86 mph
-2.8%
+2.0%
18%
87 to 93 mph
-3.6%
-1.4%
19%
94 to 99 mph
-2.2%
-1.0%
24%
Above 100 mph
+11.3%
+1.0%
11.5% of Austin Riley's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.0% higher than the league average. 11.1% of batted balls allowed by Dylan Cease are hit at this angle, which is 0.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.
17%
Below -10°
-2.1%
-0.1%
12%
-10 to 0°
-2.8%
-1.6%
8%
1 to 6°
-2.3%
-1.5%
18%
7 to 18°
+2.8%
+0.1%
15%
19 to 28°
+1.3%
+0.6%
11%
29 to 38°
+0.0%
-0.3%
7%
39 to 50°
+0.9%
-0.5%
8%
Above 50°
+2.2%
+3.3%
Austin Riley has 8 plate appearances against Dylan Cease in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 6 with a double and 2 walks
| PA | AB | H | HR | 2/3B | 1B | K | BB | Avg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.167 |
| Expected From Contact → | 1.01 | 0.02 | 0.90 | 0.09 | 0.169 | ||||
| Expected From Contact | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Outcome | HR | 2/3B | 1B | Out |
| 2025-03-28 | Walk | ||||
| 2025-03-28 | Double | ||||
| 2024-07-13 | Strikeout | ||||
| 2024-07-13 | Strikeout | ||||
| 2024-07-13 | Flyout | 2% | 2% | 96% | |
| 2023-07-16 | Strikeout | ||||
| 2023-07-16 | Walk | ||||
| 2023-07-16 | Strikeout | ||||
Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.
