Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Austin Riley

matchup for Michael King

300th out of 436 (Worst 31%)

Michael King

matchup for Austin Riley

476th out of 567 (Worst 16%)

Leans in favor of King

Austin Riley has a 30.8% chance of reaching base vs Michael King, which is 1.6% lower than Riley's typical expectations, and 0.2% higher than batters facing King.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.8%	21.4%	3.3%	4.7%	13.4%	9.4%	31.8%
Riley	-1.6	-1.8	-0.8	-1.0	0.0	+0.2	+5.4
King	+0.2	+0.5	+0.8	+0.4	-0.7	-0.3	+2.8

Austin Riley is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Michael King is right handed with an extreme release toward the third base side. Riley has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Michael King throws a Sinker 37% of the time. Austin Riley has a B+ grade against right-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (R)

37%

Slider (R)

20%

4-Seam (R)

20%

Changeup (R)

18%

Curve (R)

7% of Michael King's pitches are classified as Strong Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Austin Riley has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Strong Challenge 7%

+2%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Chaser 6%

+0%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Weak Challenge 8%

+0%

Mid Challenge 11%

Likely Ball 19%

Non-Competitive 12%

-1%

Meatball 3%

-3%

48% of Michael King's pitches are classified as Extreme Break Toward Third Base, which is 33% higher than the MLB average. Austin Riley has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Break 48%

+33%

Just Gravity 30%

+17%

Medium Fast Velo 24%

+9%

15.5% of Austin Riley's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 1.6% higher than the league average. Michael King strikes out 18.7% of the batters he faces, which is 4.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +1.6% +4.7% 5%

Walk -0.9% +0.1% 40%

In Play -0.7% -4.8% 39%

On Base +1.3% -2.2% 31%

Hit +2.2% -2.3% 14%

Single -0.6% -0.5% 13%

2B / 3B -0.1% -1.4% 3%

Home Run +2.9% -0.4%

27.6% of Austin Riley's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 6.8% lower than the league average. Michael King induces Standard Grounders at a 36.8% rate, which is 2.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.3% +0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder -6.8% +2.4% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.1% -1.5% 14%

Low Screamer -1.1% +2.1% 9%

Rising Liner +2.0% -1.8% 4%

Maybe Homer +2.3% +0.6% 3%

Likely Homer -0.5% +1.5% 1%

No Doubter +1.6% +0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout +2.2% -3.0% 3%

Pop up +0.5% -0.7%

35.6% of Austin Riley's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 11.3% higher than the league average. 22.9% of batted balls allowed by Michael King are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.8% +2.5% 21%

75 to 86 mph -2.8% +1.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.6% -2.8% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.2% -0.3% 24%

Above 100 mph +11.3% -1.4%

11.4% of Austin Riley's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.1% lower than the league average. 12.5% of batted balls allowed by Michael King are hit at this angle, which is 1.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.2% +0.1% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.8% -1.5% 8%

1 to 6° -2.3% +0.6% 18%

7 to 18° +2.8% +0.1% 15%

19 to 28° +1.3% +0.7% 11%

29 to 38° -0.1% +1.0% 7%

39 to 50° +0.9% -1.6% 8%

Above 50° +2.2% +0.6%

Austin Riley has 4 plate appearances against Michael King in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 4 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
Expected From Contact →			0.52	0.00	0.05	0.47			0.130

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2025-03-27	Strikeout
2025-03-27	Lineout
2023-08-16	Single		5%	47%	48%
2023-08-16	Caught Stealing 2B

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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