Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Austin Riley

matchup for Ranger Suarez

373rd out of 436 (Worst 15%)

Ranger Suarez

matchup for Austin Riley

173rd out of 564 (Best 31%)

Strong advantage for Riley

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	35.9%	25.8%	3.5%	6.1%	16.2%	10.2%	25.4%
Riley	+2.8	+1.8	-0.3	+0.1	+2.0	+1.0	-1.3
Suarez	+1.9	+1.0	+1.0	+0.4	-0.4	+0.9	+1.0

Austin Riley is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. Ranger Suarez is left handed with a moderate release toward the first base side. Riley has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Ranger Suarez throws a Sinker 33% of the time. Austin Riley has an A grade against left-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (L)

33%

4-Seam (L)

21%

Changeup (L)

20%

Curve (L)

12%

Cutter (L)

13% of Ranger Suarez's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Austin Riley has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 13%

+4%

Likely Ball 21%

+1%

Fringe Miss 14%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Strong Challenge 3%

-2%

Mid Challenge 9%

-2%

Meatball 2%

-3%

33% of Ranger Suarez's pitches are classified as Just Gravity, which is 20% higher than the MLB average. Austin Riley has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Just Gravity 33%

+20%

Extreme Break 34%

+18%

Medium Fast Velo 31%

+15%

15.5% of Austin Riley's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 1.6% higher than the league average. Ranger Suarez strikes out 16.0% of the batters he faces, which is 0.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +1.6% +0.1% 4%

Walk -0.3% -1.2% 40%

In Play -1.3% +1.1% 39%

On Base +1.5% +1.9% 31%

Hit +1.8% +3.1% 14%

Single -0.7% +1.8% 13%

2B / 3B -0.3% +2.2% 3%

Home Run +2.8% -0.9%

27.7% of Austin Riley's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 6.7% lower than the league average. Ranger Suarez induces Standard Grounders at a 45.7% rate, which is 11.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.3% +1.7% 34%

Standard Grounder -6.7% +11.3% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.0% +1.7% 14%

Low Screamer -1.0% -2.1% 9%

Rising Liner +1.9% -1.0% 4%

Maybe Homer +2.4% -2.5% 3%

Likely Homer -0.4% -1.0% 1%

No Doubter +1.6% -0.9% 20%

Routine Flyout +2.1% -6.2% 3%

Pop up +0.5% -1.1%

35.6% of Austin Riley's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 11.3% higher than the league average. 21.4% of batted balls allowed by Ranger Suarez are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.7% +3.9% 21%

75 to 86 mph -2.8% +2.8% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.6% -1.0% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.2% -2.8% 24%

Above 100 mph +11.3% -2.9%

11.5% of Austin Riley's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.0% higher than the league average. 7.9% of batted balls allowed by Ranger Suarez are hit at this angle, which is 3.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.1% +9.9% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.8% +0.8% 8%

1 to 6° -2.3% +1.7% 18%

7 to 18° +2.8% -1.5% 15%

19 to 28° +1.3% -2.1% 11%

29 to 38° +0.0% -3.6% 7%

39 to 50° +0.9% -0.8% 8%

Above 50° +2.2% -4.4%

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	27	23	7	2	3	2	7	4	0.304
Expected From Contact →			7.14	2.11	2.60	2.43			0.310

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-07-06	Strikeout
2024-07-06	Strikeout
2024-07-06	Strikeout
2024-03-31	Strikeout
2024-03-31	Double		51%	14%	36%
2023-10-12	Lineout		11%	4%	84%
2023-10-12	Home Run	85%	14%
2023-10-07	Strikeout
2023-10-07	Lineout		4%	2%	94%
2023-06-20	Home Run	100%
2023-06-20	Lineout		4%		95%
2023-06-20	Pop Out		2%	5%	94%
2022-10-11	Strikeout
2022-10-11	Walk
2022-09-22	Double	11%	86%	1%	1%
2022-09-22	Single		2%	21%	78%
2022-09-22	Single			94%	6%
2022-09-16	Flyout				99%
2022-09-16	Walk
2022-09-16	Strikeout
2022-07-25	Double	13%	81%	5%	1%
2022-07-25	Pop Out				99%
2022-06-29	Walk
2022-06-29	Groundout		4%	59%	37%
2022-06-29	GIDP			36%	64%
2022-05-25	Walk
2022-05-25	Pop Out				100%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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