Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Austin Riley

matchup for Joe Mantiply

330th out of 436 (Worst 25%)

Joe Mantiply

matchup for Austin Riley

459th out of 564 (Worst 19%)

Leans in favor of Mantiply

Austin Riley has a 29.6% chance of reaching base vs Joe Mantiply, which is 3.6% lower than Riley's typical expectations, and 1.4% higher than batters facing Mantiply.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	29.6%	23.8%	2.7%	5.7%	15.5%	5.8%	26.2%
Riley	-3.6	-0.1	-1.1	-0.3	+1.3	-3.5	-0.4
Mantiply	+1.4	+0.8	+0.5	+0.3	0.0	+0.6	+3.3

Austin Riley is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. Joe Mantiply is left handed with an extreme release toward the first base side. Riley has an A+ grade vs this particular release point.

Joe Mantiply throws a Sinker 42% of the time. Austin Riley has an A grade against left-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (L)

42%

Curve (L)

29%

Changeup (L)

24%

14% of Joe Mantiply's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 5% higher than the MLB average. Austin Riley has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 14%

+5%

Chaser 9%

+3%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Fringe Miss 12%

Strong Challenge 5%

Likely Ball 18%

-1%

Mid Challenge 10%

-2%

Meatball 3%

-2%

Non-Competitive 10%

-3%

61% of Joe Mantiply's pitches are classified as Extreme Break Toward Third Base, which is 45% higher than the MLB average. Austin Riley has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Break 61%

+45%

Medium Drop 38%

+26%

Very Slow Velo 38%

+22%

Offspeed (L) 24%

+11%

15.5% of Austin Riley's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 1.6% higher than the league average. Joe Mantiply strikes out 16.1% of the batters he faces, which is 1.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +1.6% +1.1% 4%

Walk -0.3% -3.1% 40%

In Play -1.3% +2.0% 39%

On Base +1.5% -2.8% 31%

Hit +1.8% +0.3% 14%

Single -0.7% +0.2% 13%

2B / 3B -0.3% +0.2% 3%

Home Run +2.8% -0.1%

27.7% of Austin Riley's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 6.7% lower than the league average. Joe Mantiply induces Standard Grounders at a 44.0% rate, which is 9.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.3% +3.3% 34%

Standard Grounder -6.7% +9.6% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.0% +0.2% 14%

Low Screamer -1.0% -4.8% 9%

Rising Liner +1.9% -1.4% 4%

Maybe Homer +2.4% +0.6% 3%

Likely Homer -0.4% -0.8% 1%

No Doubter +1.6% -0.6% 20%

Routine Flyout +2.1% -4.7% 3%

Pop up +0.5% -1.4%

35.6% of Austin Riley's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 11.3% higher than the league average. 21.6% of batted balls allowed by Joe Mantiply are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.7% +5.0% 21%

75 to 86 mph -2.8% -1.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.6% -3.9% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.2% +2.7% 24%

Above 100 mph +11.3% -2.7%

11.5% of Austin Riley's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.0% higher than the league average. 9.5% of batted balls allowed by Joe Mantiply are hit at this angle, which is 2.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.1% +7.9% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.8% +3.7% 8%

1 to 6° -2.3% +1.1% 18%

7 to 18° +2.8% -1.6% 15%

19 to 28° +1.3% -2.5% 11%

29 to 38° +0.0% -2.0% 7%

39 to 50° +0.9% -2.1% 8%

Above 50° +2.2% -4.5%

Austin Riley has 1 plate appearance against Joe Mantiply in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 1 with a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	1.000
Expected From Contact →			0.72	0.01	0.69	0.02			0.718

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-07-10	Double		69%	2%	28%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine Log InSubscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe