Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Austin Riley

matchup for Jose Quintana

378th out of 436 (Worst 14%)

Jose Quintana

matchup for Austin Riley

286th out of 567 (Best 51%)

Strong advantage for Riley

Austin Riley has a 34.8% chance of reaching base vs Jose Quintana, which is 1.6% higher than Riley's typical expectations, and 2.6% higher than batters facing Quintana.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	34.8%	23.1%	2.6%	5.8%	14.7%	11.7%	23.2%
Riley	+1.6	-0.9	-1.2	-0.1	+0.5	+2.5	-3.5
Quintana	+2.6	+1.1	+0.5	+0.7	-0.1	+1.5	+2.1

Austin Riley is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. Jose Quintana is left handed with a horizontal release toward the first base side. Riley has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Jose Quintana throws a 4-seam fastball 31% of the time. Austin Riley has an A- grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

31%

Curve (L)

28%

Sinker (L)

24%

Changeup (L)

17%

23% of Jose Quintana's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Austin Riley has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 23%

+3%

Fringe Miss 14%

+2%

Chaser 6%

+0%

Non-Competitive 13%

+0%

Meatball 6%

Edge Painter 17%

-1%

Weak Challenge 8%

-1%

Mid Challenge 9%

-2%

Strong Challenge 3%

-2%

37% of Jose Quintana's pitches are classified as Medium Velocity, which is 22% higher than the MLB average. Austin Riley has a B- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Velo 37%

+22%

Medium Ride 23%

+9%

Small Break 17%

+9%

15.5% of Austin Riley's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 1.6% higher than the league average. Jose Quintana strikes out 16.5% of the batters he faces, which is 0.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +1.6% +0.4% 4%

Walk -0.3% -1.1% 40%

In Play -1.3% +0.7% 39%

On Base +1.5% +1.3% 31%

Hit +1.8% +2.5% 14%

Single -0.7% +1.8% 13%

2B / 3B -0.3% +1.4% 3%

Home Run +2.8% -0.8%

27.7% of Austin Riley's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 6.7% lower than the league average. Jose Quintana induces Standard Grounders at a 34.9% rate, which is 0.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.3% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder -6.7% +0.5% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.0% +2.1% 14%

Low Screamer -1.0% 0.0% 9%

Rising Liner +1.9% -0.3% 4%

Maybe Homer +2.4% -0.5% 3%

Likely Homer -0.4% -0.7% 1%

No Doubter +1.6% -0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout +2.1% +0.0% 3%

Pop up +0.5% -0.8%

35.6% of Austin Riley's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 11.3% higher than the league average. 22.2% of batted balls allowed by Jose Quintana are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.7% -0.8% 21%

75 to 86 mph -2.8% 0.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.6% +0.5% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.2% +2.5% 24%

Above 100 mph +11.3% -2.1%

11.5% of Austin Riley's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.0% higher than the league average. 10.0% of batted balls allowed by Jose Quintana are hit at this angle, which is 1.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.1% -2.4% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.8% +3.0% 8%

1 to 6° -2.3% +1.4% 18%

7 to 18° +2.8% -0.1% 15%

19 to 28° +1.3% +1.7% 11%

29 to 38° +0.0% -1.4% 7%

39 to 50° +0.9% -1.1% 8%

Above 50° +2.2% -1.2%

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	18	14	3	0	0	3	2	4	0.214
Expected From Contact →			4.76	0.34	1.06	3.36			0.340

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-05-10	Lineout		11%	7%	81%
2024-05-10	Single		13%	80%	6%
2024-05-10	Walk
2024-04-11	Strikeout
2024-04-11	Flyout	20%	10%		69%
2024-04-11	Groundout		11%	70%	19%
2023-08-23	Single		7%	85%	8%
2023-08-23	Single			67%	33%
2023-08-23	Walk
2023-08-12	Pop Out				100%
2023-08-12	Lineout				99%
2023-08-12	Walk
2022-08-26	Lineout	11%	25%	16%	49%
2022-08-26	Walk
2022-08-26	Groundout		1%	2%	97%
2022-06-12	Strikeout
2022-06-12	Lineout	2%	26%	5%	66%
2022-06-12	Pop Out			4%	96%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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