Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Nico Hoerner

matchup for Brandon Pfaadt

409th out of 436 (Worst 6%)

Brandon Pfaadt

matchup for Nico Hoerner

56th out of 567 (Best 11%)

Extreme advantage for Hoerner

Nico Hoerner has a 36.1% chance of reaching base vs Brandon Pfaadt, which is 3.1% higher than Hoerner's typical expectations, and 3.6% higher than batters facing Pfaadt.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	36.1%	31.3%	1.8%	7.1%	22.5%	4.7%	12.8%
Hoerner	+3.1	+3.7	+0.4	+1.3	+2.0	-0.6	+2.0
Pfaadt	+3.6	+6.8	-1.3	+1.8	+6.4	-3.2	-16.3

Nico Hoerner is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Brandon Pfaadt is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Hoerner has a B- grade vs this particular release point.

Brandon Pfaadt throws a 4-seam fastball 38% of the time. Nico Hoerner has an A- grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

38%

Slider (R)

27%

Sinker (R)

18%

Changeup (R)

12%

Curve (R)

19% of Brandon Pfaadt's pitches are classified as Edge Painters, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Nico Hoerner has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Edge Painter 19%

+2%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+0%

Meatball 6%

Fringe Miss 12%

Weak Challenge 8%

Chaser 5%

-1%

Non-Competitive 9%

-3%

29% of Brandon Pfaadt's pitches are classified as Just Gravity, which is 15% higher than the MLB average. Nico Hoerner has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Just Gravity 29%

+15%

Medium Fast Velo 30%

+15%

Large Break 15%

+10%

5.9% of Nico Hoerner's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 14.6% lower than the league average. Brandon Pfaadt strikes out 16.5% of the batters he faces, which is 1.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

20%

Strikeout -14.6% +1.2% 5%

Walk -2.1% -2.4% 33%

In Play +16.7% +1.2% 39%

On Base +9.8% -0.1% 31%

Hit +11.9% +2.4% 14%

Single +6.6% +0.5% 13%

2B / 3B +7.0% +0.9% 3%

Home Run -1.8% +1.0%

40.3% of Nico Hoerner's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.9% higher than the league average. Brandon Pfaadt induces Standard Grounders at a 32.0% rate, which is 2.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.6% +0.5% 34%

Standard Grounder +5.9% -2.4% 7%

Hard Grounder -1.4% -0.6% 14%

Low Screamer +3.6% +2.6% 9%

Rising Liner +0.4% +0.2% 4%

Maybe Homer -2.4% -1.3% 3%

Likely Homer -2.6% +0.8% 1%

No Doubter -1.2% +0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout -2.4% +0.9% 3%

Pop up +0.6% -1.0%

14.4% of Nico Hoerner's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 9.9% lower than the league average. 29.1% of batted balls allowed by Brandon Pfaadt are hit at above 100 mph, which is 4.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +3.2% -0.9% 21%

75 to 86 mph +2.1% -5.4% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.6% +5.7% 19%

94 to 99 mph +3.1% -4.1% 24%

Above 100 mph -9.9% +4.8%

10.4% of Nico Hoerner's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.1% lower than the league average. 7.7% of batted balls allowed by Brandon Pfaadt are hit at this angle, which is 3.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +3.4% -3.6% 12%

-10 to 0° +1.8% +5.5% 8%

1 to 6° -0.8% -1.5% 18%

7 to 18° +1.3% -2.0% 15%

19 to 28° -2.1% +3.9% 11%

29 to 38° -1.1% -3.7% 7%

39 to 50° -1.9% -0.9% 8%

Above 50° -0.6% +2.4%

Nico Hoerner has 12 plate appearances against Brandon Pfaadt in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 12 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	12	12	2	0	0	2	1	0	0.167
Expected From Contact →			1.08	0.01	0.06	1.00			0.090

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-07-21	Flyout	1%	2%		97%
2024-07-21	Flyout				100%
2024-07-21	Strikeout
2024-04-17	Groundout			6%	94%
2024-04-17	Pop Out				100%
2024-04-17	Field Error
2023-09-15	Single			88%	12%
2023-09-15	Flyout				99%
2023-09-15	Flyout		2%		98%
2023-09-10	Flyout				100%
2023-09-10	Single			5%	95%
2023-09-10	Flyout				99%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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