Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Nico Hoerner

matchup for A.J. Puk

408th out of 436 (Worst 7%)

A.J. Puk

matchup for Nico Hoerner

541st out of 567 (Worst 5%)

Leans in favor of Puk

Nico Hoerner has a 28.4% chance of reaching base vs A.J. Puk, which is 4.5% lower than Hoerner's typical expectations, and 3.8% higher than batters facing Puk.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	28.4%	25.0%	1.3%	5.7%	18.0%	3.5%	17.3%
Hoerner	-4.5	-2.6	-0.1	-0.1	-2.4	-1.9	+6.5
Puk	+3.8	+6.2	-1.3	+1.0	+6.5	-2.4	-20.1

Nico Hoerner is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. A.J. Puk is left handed with an extreme release toward the first base side. Hoerner has an A grade vs this particular release point.

A.J. Puk throws a 4-seam fastball 47% of the time. Nico Hoerner has a C- grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

47%

Slider (L)

38%

Sinker (L)

13%

16% of A.J. Puk's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 5% higher than the MLB average. Nico Hoerner has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 16%

+5%

Strong Challenge 7%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Chaser 6%

+0%

Weak Challenge 9%

Fringe Miss 12%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Likely Ball 17%

-2%

Meatball 3%

-3%

30% of A.J. Puk's pitches are classified as Very Fast Velocity, which is 27% higher than the MLB average. Nico Hoerner has an A- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Very Fast Velo 30%

+27%

Large Break 36%

+14%

Low Ride 37%

+14%

Breaking (L) 38%

+9%

5.9% of Nico Hoerner's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 14.6% lower than the league average. A.J. Puk strikes out 20.8% of the batters he faces, which is 8.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

20%

Strikeout -14.6% +8.0% 5%

Walk -2.1% -1.3% 33%

In Play +16.7% -6.8% 39%

On Base +9.8% -4.0% 31%

Hit +11.9% -2.7% 14%

Single +6.6% -1.3% 13%

2B / 3B +7.0% -1.0% 3%

Home Run -1.8% -0.4%

40.3% of Nico Hoerner's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.9% higher than the league average. A.J. Puk induces Standard Grounders at a 32.6% rate, which is 1.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.6% +0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder +5.9% -1.8% 7%

Hard Grounder -1.4% +0.2% 14%

Low Screamer +3.6% +2.1% 9%

Rising Liner +0.4% +1.0% 4%

Maybe Homer -2.4% -2.8% 3%

Likely Homer -2.6% +1.0% 1%

No Doubter -1.2% -0.8% 20%

Routine Flyout -2.4% +0.1% 3%

Pop up +0.6% +0.9%

14.4% of Nico Hoerner's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 9.9% lower than the league average. 20.7% of batted balls allowed by A.J. Puk are hit at above 100 mph, which is 3.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +3.2% +3.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph +2.1% +1.6% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.6% -2.1% 19%

94 to 99 mph +3.1% +0.5% 24%

Above 100 mph -9.9% -3.6%

10.4% of Nico Hoerner's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.1% lower than the league average. 10.1% of batted balls allowed by A.J. Puk are hit at this angle, which is 1.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +3.4% +0.2% 12%

-10 to 0° +1.8% -2.3% 8%

1 to 6° -0.8% -0.1% 18%

7 to 18° +1.3% +1.6% 15%

19 to 28° -2.1% -1.6% 11%

29 to 38° -1.1% -1.4% 7%

39 to 50° -1.9% +2.5% 8%

Above 50° -0.6% +1.1%

Nico Hoerner has 4 plate appearances against A.J. Puk in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 4 with 2 doubles and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	4	4	2	0	2	0	1	0	0.500
Expected From Contact →			1.89	0.00	0.79	1.10			0.473

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-04-19	Flyout				99%
2024-04-19	Double		48%	48%	4%
2024-04-19	Double		31%	62%	8%
2023-04-30	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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