Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Nico Hoerner

matchup for Seth Lugo

288th out of 436 (Worst 34%)

Seth Lugo

matchup for Nico Hoerner

366th out of 567 (Worst 36%)

Moderate advantage for Hoerner

Nico Hoerner has a 32.5% chance of reaching base vs Seth Lugo, which is 0.4% higher than Hoerner's typical expectations, and 0.1% higher than batters facing Lugo.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	32.5%	28.4%	1.4%	4.7%	22.2%	4.1%	10.1%
Hoerner	-0.4	+0.8	+0.0	-1.0	+1.8	-1.3	-0.7
Lugo	+0.1	+4.5	-1.7	-0.2	+6.4	-4.4	-14.7

Nico Hoerner is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Seth Lugo is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Hoerner has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Seth Lugo throws a 4-seam fastball 29% of the time. Nico Hoerner has an A- grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

29%

Curve (R)

28%

Sinker (R)

17%

Slider (R)

13%

Changeup (R)

10% of Seth Lugo's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Nico Hoerner has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 10%

+2%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Non-Competitive 12%

-1%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Likely Ball 18%

-1%

25% of Seth Lugo's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 20% higher than the MLB average. Nico Hoerner has a D grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 25%

+20%

Large Break 18%

+13%

Extreme Slow Velo 16%

+11%

Breaking (R) 41%

+10%

5.9% of Nico Hoerner's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 14.6% lower than the league average. Seth Lugo strikes out 16.5% of the batters he faces, which is 0.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

20%

Strikeout -14.6% +0.8% 5%

Walk -2.1% -2.3% 33%

In Play +16.7% +1.4% 39%

On Base +9.8% -0.4% 31%

Hit +11.9% +1.9% 14%

Single +6.6% +0.7% 13%

2B / 3B +7.0% +1.1% 3%

Home Run -1.8% +0.1%

40.3% of Nico Hoerner's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.9% higher than the league average. Seth Lugo induces Standard Grounders at a 36.3% rate, which is 1.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.6% +1.4% 34%

Standard Grounder +5.9% +1.9% 7%

Hard Grounder -1.4% -1.6% 14%

Low Screamer +3.6% +0.5% 9%

Rising Liner +0.4% -1.0% 4%

Maybe Homer -2.4% -0.5% 3%

Likely Homer -2.6% +2.1% 1%

No Doubter -1.2% -0.5% 20%

Routine Flyout -2.4% -0.1% 3%

Pop up +0.6% -2.2%

14.4% of Nico Hoerner's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 9.9% lower than the league average. 22.7% of batted balls allowed by Seth Lugo are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +3.2% +1.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph +2.1% +0.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.6% -1.4% 19%

94 to 99 mph +3.1% +0.8% 24%

Above 100 mph -9.9% -1.6%

10.4% of Nico Hoerner's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.1% lower than the league average. 14.0% of batted balls allowed by Seth Lugo are hit at this angle, which is 2.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +3.4% +2.2% 12%

-10 to 0° +1.8% -0.2% 8%

1 to 6° -0.8% +1.3% 18%

7 to 18° +1.3% -2.0% 15%

19 to 28° -2.1% -1.4% 11%

29 to 38° -1.1% +2.6% 7%

39 to 50° -1.9% +0.4% 8%

Above 50° -0.6% -2.9%

Nico Hoerner has 6 plate appearances against Seth Lugo in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 6 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	6	1	0	0	1	1	0	0.167
Expected From Contact →			0.87	0.00	0.02	0.86			0.145

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-07-27	Lineout				99%
2024-07-27	Strikeout
2024-07-27	Groundout			9%	91%
2023-04-27	Single			58%	41%
2023-04-27	Groundout			18%	81%
2023-04-27	Pop Out				100%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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