Matchup Machine

Nico Hoerner

Worst 47% of matchups for Austin Gomber

Austin Gomber

Worst 47% of matchups for Nico Hoerner

Moderate advantage for Hoerner

Model Prediction
Prediction	2.0%	3.9%	19.9%	4.4%	9.9%
MLB (+/-)	-0.8	-0.4	+5.9	-5.3	-15.3
Hoerner	+0.1	-0.8	+1.4	-1.2	-4.2
Gomber	-1.2	-0.5	+3.7	-3.5	-6.4

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

2.0%

3.9%

19.9%

4.4%

9.9%

MLB (+/-)

-0.8

-0.4

+5.9

-5.3

-15.3

Hoerner

+0.1

-0.8

+1.4

-1.2

-4.2

Gomber

-1.2

-0.5

+3.7

-3.5

-6.4

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	2	2	0	2	0	0	0	1.000
Expected From Contact →			1.87	0.69	0.86	0.32			.933

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2022-04-17	Double	69%	20%	1%	10%
2022-04-17	Double		66%	30%	4%
2020-09-05	Lineout		1%	3%	96%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
⭐	52%	60	RHB vs LHP	-14	80%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

⭐

52%

RHB vs LHP

-14

80%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
	49%	47	Fastball	16	45%
	25%	48	Breaking	-26	37%
⭐	8%	60	Offspeed	0	18%
			------------------
	50%	55	Four-Seam FB	-3	44%
	44%	45	Slider	-6	20%
	59%	59	Changeup	0	18%
	36%	41	Knuckle-Curve	-94	17%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

49%

Fastball

45%

25%

Breaking

-26

37%

⭐

Offspeed

18%

------------------

50%

Four-Seam FB

-3

44%

Slider

-6

20%

59%

Changeup

18%

36%

Knuckle-Curve

-94

17%

Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
55%	11	Bottom of zone	13	13%
66%	48	Top of zone	-3	12%
60%	43	Away / Arm Side	9	11%
73%	12	In / Glove Side	-29	10%
63%	47	Middle	-23	7%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

55%

Bottom of zone

13%

66%

Top of zone

-3

12%

60%

Away / Arm Side

11%

73%

In / Glove Side

-29

10%

63%

Middle

-23

	Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
⭐	39%	72	Below the zone	22	30%
	45%	57	In / Glove Side	30	24%
⭐⭐	37%	93	Above the zone	8	24%
	33%	57	Away / Arm Side	-3	22%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

⭐

39%

Below the zone

30%

45%

In / Glove Side

24%

⭐⭐

37%

Above the zone

24%

33%

Away / Arm Side

-3

22%

	Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
	24%	11	First Pitch	10	28%
⭐⭐	60%	80	Batter Behind	0	28%
	44%	52	Batter Ahead	4	26%
⭐	68%	62	2 Strikes	-23	26%
	45%	42	3 Balls	2	8%
	74%	40	Full Count	-9	4%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

24%

First Pitch

28%

⭐⭐

60%

Batter Behind

28%

44%

Batter Ahead

26%

⭐

68%

2 Strikes

-23

26%

45%

3 Balls

74%

Full Count

-9