Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Nico Hoerner

matchup for Jordan Lyles

285th out of 436 (Worst 35%)

Jordan Lyles

matchup for Nico Hoerner

out of 567 (Worst %)

Strong advantage for Hoerner

Nico Hoerner has a 33.3% chance of reaching base vs Jordan Lyles, which is 0.4% higher than Hoerner's typical expectations, and 0.3% higher than batters facing Lyles.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	33.3%	28.2%	1.7%	7.1%	19.5%	5.1%	7.6%
Hoerner	+0.4	+0.6	+0.3	+1.3	-1.0	-0.2	-3.2
Lyles	-0.3	+4.0	-1.7	+1.2	+4.4	-4.3	-10.6

Nico Hoerner is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Jordan Lyles is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Hoerner has a B- grade vs this particular release point.

Jordan Lyles throws a 4-seam fastball 35% of the time. Nico Hoerner has an A- grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

35%

Slider (R)

23%

Curve (R)

17%

Sinker (R)

12%

Changeup (R)

10%

9% of Jordan Lyles's pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Nico Hoerner has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Meatball 9%

+3%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Chaser 6%

+0%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Non-Competitive 12%

-1%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Weak Challenge 7%

-1%

16% of Jordan Lyles's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 12% higher than the MLB average. Nico Hoerner has a D grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 16%

+12%

Medium Velo 21%

+10%

Medium Break 28%

+9%

Breaking (R) 40%

+9%

5.9% of Nico Hoerner's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 14.6% lower than the league average. Jordan Lyles strikes out 15.7% of the batters he faces, which is 0.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

20%

Strikeout -14.6% +0.8% 5%

Walk -2.1% -2.3% 33%

In Play +16.7% +1.5% 39%

On Base +9.8% -4.1% 31%

Hit +11.9% -1.7% 14%

Single +6.6% -1.0% 13%

2B / 3B +7.0% -0.7% 3%

Home Run -1.8% -0.1%

40.3% of Nico Hoerner's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.9% higher than the league average. Jordan Lyles induces Standard Grounders at a 26.4% rate, which is 8.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.6% +0.5% 34%

Standard Grounder +5.9% -8.1% 7%

Hard Grounder -1.4% +1.3% 14%

Low Screamer +3.6% 0.0% 9%

Rising Liner +0.4% -1.3% 4%

Maybe Homer -2.4% -0.3% 3%

Likely Homer -2.6% +2.6% 1%

No Doubter -1.2% +0.4% 20%

Routine Flyout -2.4% +1.8% 3%

Pop up +0.6% +3.1%

14.4% of Nico Hoerner's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 9.9% lower than the league average. 24.9% of batted balls allowed by Jordan Lyles are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +3.2% -2.7% 21%

75 to 86 mph +2.1% +1.2% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.6% 0.0% 19%

94 to 99 mph +3.1% +0.9% 24%

Above 100 mph -9.9% +0.6%

10.4% of Nico Hoerner's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.1% lower than the league average. 11.3% of batted balls allowed by Jordan Lyles are hit at this angle, which is 0.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +3.4% -4.2% 12%

-10 to 0° +1.8% -1.7% 8%

1 to 6° -0.8% 0.0% 18%

7 to 18° +1.3% -2.3% 15%

19 to 28° -2.1% +1.4% 11%

29 to 38° -1.1% -0.2% 7%

39 to 50° -1.9% +0.4% 8%

Above 50° -0.6% +6.6%

Nico Hoerner has 7 plate appearances against Jordan Lyles in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 7 with a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	7	7	2	0	1	1	0	0	0.286
Expected From Contact →			1.65	0.00	0.31	1.33			0.236

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-08-20	Forceout			6%	94%
2023-08-20	GIDP		6%	11%	83%
2023-08-20	Single			93%	6%
2023-08-20	Flyout				100%
2022-07-12	Double Play
2022-07-12	Groundout			22%	78%
2022-07-12	Double		24%		75%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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