Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Lars Nootbaar

matchup for Pablo Lopez

294th out of 436 (Worst 33%)

Pablo Lopez

matchup for Lars Nootbaar

435th out of 567 (Worst 23%)

Leans in favor of Nootbaar

Lars Nootbaar has a 33.0% chance of reaching base vs Pablo Lopez, which is 1.4% lower than Nootbaar's typical expectations, and 1.9% higher than batters facing Lopez.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	33.0%	22.9%	2.3%	4.4%	16.2%	10.2%	24.6%
Nootbaar	-1.4	+1.3	-0.3	-0.4	+2.0	-2.7	+2.3
Lopez	+1.9	-0.9	-0.6	-0.5	+0.2	+2.8	-2.4

Lars Nootbaar is better vs right-handed pitching. Pablo Lopez is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Nootbaar has an A- grade vs this particular release point.

Pablo Lopez throws a 4-seam fastball 37% of the time. Lars Nootbaar has an A grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

37%

Changeup (R)

25%

Slider (R)

13%

Curve (R)

10%

Sinker (R)

8% of Pablo Lopez's pitches are classified as Chasers, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Lars Nootbaar hasn't faced this type of pitch very often.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Chaser 8%

+2%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Weak Challenge 9%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+0%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

Meatball 4%

-2%

Non-Competitive 8%

-4%

25% of Pablo Lopez's pitches are classified as Offspeed Pitches, which is 14% higher than the MLB average. Lars Nootbaar has a B grade against this type of pitch from right handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Offspeed (R) 25%

+14%

Extreme Break 26%

+11%

Fast Velo 26%

+11%

11.5% of Lars Nootbaar's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 5.2% lower than the league average. Pablo Lopez strikes out 18.7% of the batters he faces, which is 4.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Strikeout -5.2% +4.2% 2%

Walk +5.0% -2.5% 39%

In Play +0.1% -1.7% 39%

On Base +3.1% -2.2% 31%

Hit -1.9% +0.3% 14%

Single -1.3% +0.4% 13%

2B / 3B -1.2% +0.2% 3%

Home Run +0.6% -0.3%

35.1% of Lars Nootbaar's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.7% higher than the league average. Pablo Lopez induces Standard Grounders at a 38.2% rate, which is 3.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.8% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder +0.7% +3.7% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.5% -1.4% 14%

Low Screamer -5.0% +1.5% 9%

Rising Liner +0.3% -0.8% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.0% -0.9% 3%

Likely Homer +0.6% -0.1% 1%

No Doubter -0.9% -0.6% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.5% -0.9% 3%

Pop up +1.5% -0.5%

26.4% of Lars Nootbaar's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.1% higher than the league average. 22.1% of batted balls allowed by Pablo Lopez are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.6% +0.9% 21%

75 to 86 mph -0.7% +3.5% 18%

87 to 93 mph +2.3% -0.5% 19%

94 to 99 mph -1.1% -1.6% 24%

Above 100 mph +2.1% -2.2%

10.4% of Lars Nootbaar's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.1% lower than the league average. 10.5% of batted balls allowed by Pablo Lopez are hit at this angle, which is 0.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +6.0% +2.9% 12%

-10 to 0° -1.5% +0.7% 8%

1 to 6° -0.5% -1.1% 18%

7 to 18° -3.0% -1.0% 15%

19 to 28° -1.0% +0.1% 11%

29 to 38° -1.1% -0.9% 7%

39 to 50° -0.4% +0.0% 8%

Above 50° +1.3% -0.7%

Lars Nootbaar has 11 plate appearances against Pablo Lopez in the last 3 years. He is 4 for 11 with a home run and a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	11	11	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.364
Expected From Contact →			5.18	1.14	1.52	2.53			0.471

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2025-03-27	Home Run
2025-03-27	Single
2025-03-27	Groundout
2024-08-24	Double		79%	15%	6%
2024-08-24	Groundout			3%	97%
2024-08-24	Flyout	14%	68%	2%	17%
2023-08-01	Single			62%	38%
2023-08-01	Groundout			7%	93%
2023-08-01	Groundout			14%	86%
2022-06-27	Groundout		4%	43%	52%
2022-06-27	Groundout			6%	94%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine Log InSubscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe