Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

William Contreras

matchup for Carlos Rodon

380th out of 436 (Worst 13%)

Carlos Rodon

matchup for W. Contreras

409th out of 567 (Worst 28%)

Moderate advantage for Contreras

William Contreras has a 34.8% chance of reaching base vs Carlos Rodon, which is 0.5% lower than Contreras's typical expectations, and 5.4% higher than batters facing Rodon.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	34.8%	22.9%	3.3%	4.5%	15.1%	11.9%	35.6%
Contreras	-0.5	+0.8	+0.7	-0.3	+0.5	-1.3	+12.0
Rodon	+5.4	+1.9	+0.2	-0.1	+1.8	+3.5	+0.1

William Contreras is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. Carlos Rodon is left handed with a horizontal release toward the first base side. Contreras has a B- grade vs this particular release point.

Carlos Rodon throws a 4-seam fastball 56% of the time. William Contreras has a B+ grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

56%

Slider (L)

28%

Changeup (L)

Curve (L)

14% of Carlos Rodon's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. William Contreras has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 14%

+3%

Strong Challenge 8%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Edge Painter 17%

Weak Challenge 7%

-2%

Non-Competitive 10%

-2%

Meatball 2%

-3%

41% of Carlos Rodon's pitches are classified as Medium Break Toward Third Base, which is 22% higher than the MLB average. William Contreras has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Break 41%

+22%

High Ride 32%

+22%

Very Fast Velo 19%

+16%

13.1% of William Contreras's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.5% lower than the league average. Carlos Rodon strikes out 19.6% of the batters he faces, which is 5.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.5% +5.4% 3%

Walk +3.4% +0.2% 40%

In Play -0.9% -5.6% 39%

On Base +4.9% -2.6% 31%

Hit +1.5% -2.8% 14%

Single -0.2% -1.6% 13%

2B / 3B +0.2% -1.7% 3%

Home Run +1.5% +0.5%

41.0% of William Contreras's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 6.6% higher than the league average. Carlos Rodon induces Standard Grounders at a 29.9% rate, which is 4.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.1% +0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder +6.6% -4.6% 7%

Hard Grounder +4.2% +0.4% 14%

Low Screamer -7.9% +1.9% 9%

Rising Liner +1.1% -0.5% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.2% -1.1% 3%

Likely Homer +2.6% +0.3% 1%

No Doubter -0.6% +0.8% 20%

Routine Flyout -5.7% +2.0% 3%

Pop up -0.1% +0.4%

37.5% of William Contreras's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 13.2% higher than the league average. 25.5% of batted balls allowed by Carlos Rodon are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.0% -3.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph -6.2% +1.5% 18%

87 to 93 mph -2.7% -0.5% 19%

94 to 99 mph -3.4% +1.5% 24%

Above 100 mph +13.2% +1.2%

7.1% of William Contreras's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 4.4% lower than the league average. 10.9% of batted balls allowed by Carlos Rodon are hit at this angle, which is 0.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +6.5% -3.0% 12%

-10 to 0° +4.3% -0.7% 8%

1 to 6° +0.1% +0.4% 18%

7 to 18° -0.3% -0.8% 15%

19 to 28° -3.3% +0.2% 11%

29 to 38° -4.4% -0.5% 7%

39 to 50° -1.5% +3.1% 8%

Above 50° -1.5% +1.3%

William Contreras has 11 plate appearances against Carlos Rodon in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 9 with 2 walks

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	11	9	1	0	0	1	3	2	0.111
Expected From Contact →			1.42	0.00	0.06	1.35			0.157

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2025-03-27	Forceout
2025-03-27	Pop Out
2025-03-27	Strikeout
2024-04-27	Lineout		6%	40%	55%
2024-04-27	Walk
2024-04-27	Strikeout
2022-09-14	Strikeout
2022-09-14	Single			73%	27%
2022-06-22	Groundout			9%	91%
2022-06-22	Walk
2022-06-22	Groundout			14%	86%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine Log InSubscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe