matchup for Aaron Nola
matchup for R. Acuna Jr.
3
Ronald Acuna Jr. has a 32.1% chance of reaching base vs Aaron Nola, which is 4.1% lower than Acuna Jr.'s typical expectations, and 2.7% higher than batters facing Nola.
| Reach | Hit | HR | 2B / 3B | 1B | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction | 32.1% | 22.8% | 2.9% | 5.7% | 14.2% | 9.3% | 28.7% |
| Acuna Jr. | -4.1 | -1.0 | -0.2 | +0.6 | -1.4 | -3.1 | +7.4 |
| Nola | +2.7 | +0.5 | -0.1 | -0.6 | +1.1 | +2.2 | -2.2 |
Ronald Acuna Jr. is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Aaron Nola is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Acuna Jr. has an A grade vs this particular release point.
Aaron Nola throws a Kn-Curve 30% of the time. Ronald Acuna Jr. hasn't faced this pitch from right handers very often
Pitch Type
% of Arsenal
Kn-Curve (R)
30%
4-Seam (R)
30%
Sinker (R)
20%
Changeup (R)
12%
Cutter (R)
8%
10.9% of Ronald Acuna Jr.'s plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 6.3% lower than the league average. Aaron Nola strikes out 20.3% of the batters he faces, which is 6.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.
17%
Strikeout
-6.3%
+6.3%
3%
Walk
+3.3%
-2.8%
38%
In Play
+3.0%
-3.5%
39%
On Base
+8.5%
-4.8%
31%
Hit
+5.3%
-2.0%
14%
Single
+1.8%
-0.8%
13%
2B / 3B
+1.9%
-0.7%
3%
Home Run
+1.6%
-0.5%
Ronald Acuna Jr. has 26 plate appearances against Aaron Nola in the last 3 years. He is 9 for 26 with a home run and 3 doubles and
| PA | AB | H | HR | 2/3B | 1B | K | BB | Avg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 26 | 26 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0.346 |
| Expected From Contact → | 8.87 | 1.01 | 2.46 | 5.40 | 0.341 | ||||
| Expected From Contact | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Outcome | HR | 2/3B | 1B | Out |
| 2024-03-30 | Forceout | 18% | 81% | ||
| 2024-03-30 | Single | ||||
| 2024-03-30 | Single | 67% | 32% | ||
| 2023-10-11 | Single | 82% | 18% | ||
| 2023-10-11 | Groundout | 46% | 31% | 23% | |
| 2023-10-11 | Double | 28% | 35% | 37% | |
| 2023-09-20 | Single | 5% | 57% | 38% | |
| 2023-09-20 | Groundout | 13% | 87% | ||
| 2023-09-20 | Lineout | 1% | 19% | 30% | 49% |
| 2023-06-22 | Flyout | 22% | 1% | 76% | |
| 2023-06-22 | Strikeout | ||||
| 2023-06-22 | Groundout | 6% | 94% | ||
| 2023-05-25 | Lineout | 12% | 10% | 78% | |
| 2023-05-25 | Forceout | 7% | 93% | ||
| 2023-05-25 | Double | 2% | 9% | 89% | |
| 2023-05-25 | Groundout | 15% | 85% | ||
| 2022-10-14 | Field Error | ||||
| 2022-10-14 | Single | 32% | 67% | ||
| 2022-10-14 | Groundout | 14% | 8% | 78% | |
| 2022-09-17 | Groundout | 2% | 98% | ||
| 2022-09-17 | Double | 97% | 2% | ||
| 2022-09-17 | Strikeout | ||||
| 2022-09-17 | Home Run | 99% | |||
| 2022-07-26 | Strikeout | ||||
| 2022-07-26 | Groundout | 7% | 93% | ||
| 2022-07-26 | Groundout | 7% | 93% | ||
Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.
Chaser
Edge Painter
Fringe Miss
Mid Challenge
Strong Challenge
Weak Challenge
Likely Ball
Meatball
Non-Competitive
Extreme Drop
Extreme Slow Velo
Large Break
Squib/Bunt
Standard Grounder
Hard Grounder
Low Screamer
Rising Liner
Maybe Homer
Likely Homer
No Doubter
Routine Flyout
Pop up
Below 75 mph
75 to 86 mph
87 to 93 mph
94 to 99 mph
Above 100 mph
Below -10°
-10 to 0°
1 to 6°
7 to 18°
19 to 28°
29 to 38°
39 to 50°
Above 50°