Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Shohei Ohtani

matchup for Tarik Skubal

306th out of 436 (Worst 30%)

Tarik Skubal

matchup for Shohei Ohtani

557th out of 567 (Worst 2%)

Strong advantage for Skubal

Shohei Ohtani has a 26.2% chance of reaching base vs Tarik Skubal, which is 8.5% lower than Ohtani's typical expectations, and 0.8% higher than batters facing Skubal.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	26.2%	19.9%	3.1%	4.6%	12.3%	6.3%	34.7%
Ohtani	-8.5	-2.1	-1.3	-0.7	-0.1	-6.4	+7.8
Skubal	+0.8	-0.2	+0.9	+0.3	-1.4	+1.0	+3.0

Shohei Ohtani is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. Tarik Skubal is left handed with an over-the-top delivery. Ohtani has a B+ grade vs this particular release point.

Tarik Skubal throws a 4-seam fastball 37% of the time. Shohei Ohtani has a B- grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

37%

Slider (L)

21%

Changeup (L)

20%

Sinker (L)

16%

Kn-Curve (L)

15% of Tarik Skubal's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Shohei Ohtani has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 15%

+4%

Weak Challenge 11%

+2%

Edge Painter 19%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Fringe Miss 12%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Meatball 3%

-2%

Likely Ball 17%

-3%

16% of Tarik Skubal's pitches are classified as Very Fast Velocity, which is 13% higher than the MLB average. Shohei Ohtani has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Very Fast Velo 16%

+13%

Medium Ride 23%

+9%

14.2% of Shohei Ohtani's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.7% lower than the league average. Tarik Skubal strikes out 20.4% of the batters he faces, which is 6.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout -0.7% +6.3% 3%

Walk +3.4% -3.3% 41%

In Play -2.7% -3.0% 39%

On Base +4.1% -6.0% 31%

Hit +0.7% -2.8% 14%

Single -3.1% -1.2% 13%

2B / 3B -3.0% -1.5% 3%

Home Run +6.8% -0.1%

32.1% of Shohei Ohtani's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 2.3% lower than the league average. Tarik Skubal induces Standard Grounders at a 37.3% rate, which is 2.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.3% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder -2.3% +2.9% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.4% -2.2% 14%

Low Screamer -3.5% -1.2% 9%

Rising Liner +1.2% -0.1% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.7% -1.6% 3%

Likely Homer +4.3% +0.4% 1%

No Doubter +2.0% -0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout -3.9% +1.9% 3%

Pop up -0.7% +0.3%

42.4% of Shohei Ohtani's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 18.1% higher than the league average. 23.5% of batted balls allowed by Tarik Skubal are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -6.3% -1.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.4% +1.5% 18%

87 to 93 mph -5.4% +1.7% 19%

94 to 99 mph -4.9% -1.1% 24%

Above 100 mph +18.1% -0.8%

11.7% of Shohei Ohtani's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.3% higher than the league average. 10.7% of batted balls allowed by Tarik Skubal are hit at this angle, which is 0.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -1.7% +0.3% 12%

-10 to 0° +0.9% +0.8% 8%

1 to 6° +0.3% -0.3% 18%

7 to 18° +1.5% -0.8% 15%

19 to 28° -1.5% +0.7% 11%

29 to 38° +0.3% -0.7% 7%

39 to 50° +0.4% +0.5% 8%

Above 50° -0.2% -0.5%

Shohei Ohtani has 6 plate appearances against Tarik Skubal in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 6.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	6	1	0	0	1	0	0	0.167
Expected From Contact →			1.80	0.01	0.26	1.53			0.300

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2025-03-27	Single
2025-03-27	Groundout
2025-03-27	Forceout
2024-07-12	Flyout				99%
2024-07-12	Flyout		25%	3%	71%
2024-07-12	Groundout			50%	50%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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