Matchup Machine

Kyle Schwarber

Worst 15% of matchups for Spencer Strider

Spencer Strider

Worst 16% of matchups for Kyle Schwarber

Leans in favor of Strider

- 2

Model Prediction
Prediction	3.6%	3.2%	7.8%	17.0%	36.2%
MLB (+/-)	+0.8	-1.1	-6.1	+7.3	+10.9
Schwarber	-0.5	-0.1	-1.2	-0.7	+6.9
Strider	+1.0	-1.0	-4.0	+7.7	+3.7

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

3.6%

3.2%

7.8%

17.0%

36.2%

MLB (+/-)

+0.8

-1.1

-6.1

+7.3

+10.9

Schwarber

-0.5

-0.1

-1.2

-0.7

+6.9

Strider

+1.0

-1.0

-4.0

+7.7

+3.7

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	23	19	4	1	0	3	10	4	.211
Expected From Contact →			4.42	1.40	0.78	2.23			.232

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Single		22%	65%	13%
2023-09-19	Strikeout
2023-09-19	Strikeout
2023-09-13	Walk
2023-09-13	Pop Out				99%
2023-09-13	Strikeout
2023-06-20	Single		27%	29%	44%
2023-06-20	Groundout			1%	98%
2023-06-20	Single		3%	64%	33%
2023-05-28	Strikeout
2023-05-28	Flyout	52%	20%		28%
2022-10-14	Lineout			62%	38%
2022-09-18	Walk
2022-09-18	Walk
2022-09-18	Strikeout
2022-08-02	Strikeout
2022-08-02	Strikeout
2022-08-02	Walk
2022-07-26	Strikeout
2022-07-26	Flyout			1%	98%
2022-07-26	Home Run	88%	4%		8%
2022-05-25	Strikeout
2022-05-25	Strikeout

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	39%	82	LHB vs RHP	118	53%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

39%

LHB vs RHP

118

53%

Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
37%	87	Fastball	125	59%
20%	13	Breaking	80	34%	⭐⭐
9%	55	Offspeed	68	7%
		------------------
39%	46	Four-Seam FB	122	59%	⭐⭐
37%	-14	Slider	91	34%	⭐⭐
43%	56	Changeup	67	7%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

37%

Fastball

125

59%

20%

Breaking

34%

⭐⭐

Offspeed

------------------

39%

Four-Seam FB

122

59%

⭐⭐

37%

-14

Slider

34%

⭐⭐

43%

Changeup

Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
63%	75	Top of zone	125	13%	⭐
44%	2	Bottom of zone	89	12%	⭐⭐
50%	51	Away / Arm Side	125	11%	⭐⭐
56%	22	In / Glove Side	102	10%	⭐⭐
70%	31	Middle	77	5%	⭐

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

63%

Top of zone

125

13%

⭐

44%

Bottom of zone

12%

⭐⭐

50%

Away / Arm Side

125

11%

⭐⭐

56%

In / Glove Side

102

10%

⭐⭐

70%

Middle

⭐

Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
28%	31	Below the zone	77	36%	⭐
22%	78	Away / Arm Side	107	26%
29%	74	In / Glove Side	93	24%
33%	111	Above the zone	125	23%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

28%

Below the zone

36%

⭐

22%

Away / Arm Side

107

26%

29%

In / Glove Side

24%

33%

111

Above the zone

125

23%

Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
45%	29	Batter Behind	112	35%	⭐⭐
50%	58	2 Strikes	102	34%	⭐
22%	70	First Pitch	125	24%	⭐
39%	76	Batter Ahead	117	23%	⭐
44%	81	3 Balls	100	7%
59%	51	Full Count	93	4%	⭐

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

45%

Batter Behind

112

35%

⭐⭐

50%

2 Strikes

102

34%

⭐

22%

First Pitch

125

24%

⭐

39%

Batter Ahead

117

23%

⭐

44%

3 Balls

100

59%

Full Count

⭐