Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Zach McKinstry

matchup for Roki Sasaki

334th out of 436 (Worst 24%)

Roki Sasaki

matchup for Zach McKinstry

out of 567 (Worst %)

Extreme advantage for McKinstry

Zach McKinstry has a 38.5% chance of reaching base vs Roki Sasaki, which is 6.6% higher than McKinstry's typical expectations, and 1.4% higher than batters facing Sasaki.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	38.5%	22.3%	3.0%	6.1%	13.2%	16.2%	18.0%
McKinstry	+6.6	-0.3	+0.4	+0.9	-1.7	+6.9	-4.3
Sasaki	+1.4	-0.4	-0.1	-0.2	-0.2	+1.8	-4.6

Zach McKinstry is slightly better vs right-handed pitching. Roki Sasaki is right handed with an extreme release toward the third base side. McKinstry has a B- grade vs this particular release point.

Roki Sasaki throws a 4-seam fastball 60% of the time. Zach McKinstry has a C grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

60%

Splitter (R)

26%

Slider (R)

15%

9% of Roki Sasaki's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 0% higher than the MLB average. Zach McKinstry has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 9%

+0%

Non-Competitive 13%

+0%

Fringe Miss 11%

-1%

Edge Painter 15%

-3%

Strong Challenge 1%

-4%

Chaser 1%

-5%

Meatball 1%

-5%

Likely Ball 13%

-7%

Mid Challenge 3%

-9%

52% of Roki Sasaki's pitches are classified as Large Break Toward Third Base, which is 31% higher than the MLB average. Zach McKinstry has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Large Break 52%

+31%

Very Fast Velo 34%

+26%

Offspeed (R) 26%

+14%

Large Drop 16%

+11%

12.7% of Zach McKinstry's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 3.3% lower than the league average. Roki Sasaki strikes out 19.4% of the batters he faces, which is 4.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -3.3% -4.7% 4%

Walk +0.0% +27.6% 38%

In Play +3.3% -23.0% 39%

On Base -0.3% +14.9% 31%

Hit -0.3% -12.8% 14%

Single +0.0% -3.0% 13%

2B / 3B +0.2% -6.7% 3%

Home Run -0.5% -3.1%

31.7% of Zach McKinstry's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 2.7% lower than the league average. Roki Sasaki induces Standard Grounders at a 36.3% rate, which is 1.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.5% +8.5% 34%

Standard Grounder -2.7% +1.9% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.5% -7.8% 14%

Low Screamer +3.9% -6.1% 9%

Rising Liner +1.9% -0.3% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.9% -4.3% 3%

Likely Homer -1.4% -3.6% 1%

No Doubter -1.0% -1.2% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.9% -2.5% 3%

Pop up -1.5% +15.2%

16.2% of Zach McKinstry's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 8.1% lower than the league average. 0.0% of batted balls allowed by Roki Sasaki are hit at above 100 mph, which is 24.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +3.8% +10.8% 21%

75 to 86 mph -0.7% -2.6% 18%

87 to 93 mph +3.6% +17.4% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.4% -1.3% 24%

Above 100 mph -8.1% -24.3%

10.3% of Zach McKinstry's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.1% lower than the league average. 0.0% of batted balls allowed by Roki Sasaki are hit at this angle, which is 11.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -5.7% +9.6% 12%

-10 to 0° +0.9% -12.4% 8%

1 to 6° +0.2% +0.7% 18%

7 to 18° +2.7% -0.5% 15%

19 to 28° +0.7% -6.2% 11%

29 to 38° -1.1% -11.4% 7%

39 to 50° +3.1% +9.8% 8%

Above 50° -0.9% +10.5%

Zach McKinstry has 2 plate appearances against Roki Sasaki in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 2 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	2	1	0	0	1	1	0	0.500
Expected From Contact →			0.75	0.00	0.08	0.67			0.376

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2025-03-29	Single		8%	67%	25%
2025-03-29	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine Log InSubscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe