Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Zach McKinstry

matchup for Aaron Nola

275th out of 436 (Worst 37%)

Aaron Nola

matchup for Zach McKinstry

399th out of 567 (Worst 30%)

Leans in favor of McKinstry

Zach McKinstry has a 30.1% chance of reaching base vs Aaron Nola, which is 1.8% lower than McKinstry's typical expectations, and 0.7% higher than batters facing Nola.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.1%	22.2%	2.7%	6.4%	13.2%	7.9%	27.6%
McKinstry	-1.8	-0.4	+0.1	+1.2	-1.8	-1.5	+5.3
Nola	+0.7	-0.1	-0.3	+0.1	+0.0	+0.8	-3.3

Zach McKinstry is slightly better vs right-handed pitching. Aaron Nola is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. McKinstry has a C+ grade vs this particular release point.

Aaron Nola throws a Kn-Curve 30% of the time. Zach McKinstry hasn't faced this pitch from right handers very often

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Kn-Curve (R)

30%

4-Seam (R)

30%

Sinker (R)

20%

Changeup (R)

12%

Cutter (R)

8% of Aaron Nola's pitches are classified as Chasers, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Zach McKinstry has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Chaser 8%

+2%

Edge Painter 19%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

+0%

Weak Challenge 8%

Likely Ball 19%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Non-Competitive 9%

-4%

26% of Aaron Nola's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 21% higher than the MLB average. Zach McKinstry has a D grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 26%

+21%

Extreme Slow Velo 23%

+18%

Large Break 22%

+18%

12.7% of Zach McKinstry's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 3.3% lower than the league average. Aaron Nola strikes out 20.3% of the batters he faces, which is 6.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -3.3% +6.3% 4%

Walk +0.0% -2.8% 38%

In Play +3.3% -3.5% 39%

On Base -0.3% -4.8% 31%

Hit -0.3% -2.0% 14%

Single +0.0% -0.8% 13%

2B / 3B +0.2% -0.7% 3%

Home Run -0.5% -0.5%

31.7% of Zach McKinstry's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 2.7% lower than the league average. Aaron Nola induces Standard Grounders at a 37.3% rate, which is 2.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.5% 0.0% 34%

Standard Grounder -2.7% +2.9% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.5% -0.6% 14%

Low Screamer +3.9% -1.6% 9%

Rising Liner +1.9% +0.5% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.9% -0.3% 3%

Likely Homer -1.4% +0.1% 1%

No Doubter -1.0% +0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.9% -0.4% 3%

Pop up -1.5% -0.7%

16.2% of Zach McKinstry's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 8.1% lower than the league average. 23.6% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Nola are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +3.8% +0.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph -0.7% -0.2% 18%

87 to 93 mph +3.6% +2.2% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.4% -1.9% 24%

Above 100 mph -8.1% -0.7%

10.3% of Zach McKinstry's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.1% lower than the league average. 10.9% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Nola are hit at this angle, which is 0.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -5.7% -0.8% 12%

-10 to 0° +0.9% +1.8% 8%

1 to 6° +0.2% +0.2% 18%

7 to 18° +2.7% +0.8% 15%

19 to 28° +0.7% +0.1% 11%

29 to 38° -1.1% -0.6% 7%

39 to 50° +3.1% -0.2% 8%

Above 50° -0.9% -1.3%

Zach McKinstry has 10 plate appearances against Aaron Nola in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 9 with a double and a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	10	9	2	0	1	1	2	1	0.222
Expected From Contact →			1.22	0.03	0.56	0.64			0.136

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-06-24	Single			33%	66%
2024-06-24	Double		51%	23%	26%
2024-06-24	Groundout			5%	95%
2023-06-05	Walk
2023-06-05	Pickoff Caught Stealing 2B
2023-06-05	Lineout		2%	2%	96%
2023-06-05	Strikeout
2022-09-28	Groundout			1%	99%
2022-09-28	Flyout	3%	1%		96%
2022-09-28	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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