Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Matt Chapman

matchup for Ryan Weathers

324th out of 436 (Worst 26%)

Ryan Weathers

matchup for Matt Chapman

389th out of 567 (Worst 32%)

Leans in favor of Chapman

Matt Chapman has a 32.7% chance of reaching base vs Ryan Weathers, which is 0.4% higher than Chapman's typical expectations, and 2.8% higher than batters facing Weathers.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	32.7%	19.8%	2.0%	5.5%	12.3%	12.9%	24.9%
Chapman	-0.4	-1.2	-1.2	+0.9	-0.9	+0.8	+0.2
Weathers	+2.8	-1.8	-0.1	0.0	-1.6	+4.6	+0.2

Matt Chapman is slightly better vs left-handed pitching. Ryan Weathers is left handed with an extreme release toward the first base side. Chapman has a C grade vs this particular release point.

Ryan Weathers throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Matt Chapman has a D grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

44%

Slider (L)

25%

Changeup (L)

18%

Sinker (L)

13%

12% of Ryan Weathers's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Matt Chapman has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Likely Ball 21%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Non-Competitive 13%

+0%

Fringe Miss 12%

Edge Painter 17%

Weak Challenge 8%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Chaser 5%

-1%

53% of Ryan Weathers's pitches are classified as Large Break Toward Third Base, which is 32% higher than the MLB average. Matt Chapman has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Large Break 53%

+32%

Fast Velo 28%

+19%

Low Ride 37%

+14%

14.6% of Matt Chapman's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.0% lower than the league average. Ryan Weathers strikes out 14.3% of the batters he faces, which is 2.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout 0.0% -2.1% 3%

Walk +2.1% -0.6% 40%

In Play -2.1% +2.7% 39%

On Base +0.7% +0.9% 31%

Hit -1.4% +1.5% 14%

Single -1.8% +0.9% 13%

2B / 3B -1.8% +1.2% 3%

Home Run +2.2% -0.5%

27.2% of Matt Chapman's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 7.2% lower than the league average. Ryan Weathers induces Standard Grounders at a 40.1% rate, which is 5.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt 0.0% +0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder -7.2% +5.7% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.7% -0.6% 14%

Low Screamer -2.0% -1.1% 9%

Rising Liner -0.2% -1.3% 4%

Maybe Homer +2.7% +1.4% 3%

Likely Homer +0.6% -0.7% 1%

No Doubter +0.9% +0.5% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.8% -5.5% 3%

Pop up +2.7% +1.2%

36.0% of Matt Chapman's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 11.6% higher than the league average. 25.4% of batted balls allowed by Ryan Weathers are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -6.0% +0.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph -3.9% +1.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph -2.2% -0.7% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.4% -2.0% 24%

Above 100 mph +11.6% +1.1%

11.8% of Matt Chapman's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.4% higher than the league average. 7.7% of batted balls allowed by Ryan Weathers are hit at this angle, which is 3.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -1.8% +3.9% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.7% +2.6% 8%

1 to 6° -1.0% +1.2% 18%

7 to 18° -2.7% -3.3% 15%

19 to 28° -0.1% +0.1% 11%

29 to 38° +0.4% -3.8% 7%

39 to 50° -0.2% +0.2% 8%

Above 50° +6.1% -0.9%

Matt Chapman has 3 plate appearances against Ryan Weathers in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 3 with a home run and a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0.667
Expected From Contact →			1.51	0.93	0.46	0.13			0.504

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-04-16	Home Run
2024-04-16	Double
2024-04-16	Pop Out

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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