Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Matt Chapman

matchup for George Kirby

316th out of 436 (Worst 28%)

George Kirby

matchup for Matt Chapman

411st out of 567 (Worst 28%)

Leans in favor of Chapman

Matt Chapman has a 29.2% chance of reaching base vs George Kirby, which is 4.0% lower than Chapman's typical expectations, and 1.0% higher than batters facing Kirby.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	29.2%	22.2%	3.3%	4.6%	14.3%	7.0%	20.9%
Chapman	-4.0	+1.2	+0.1	0.0	+1.2	-5.2	-3.8
Kirby	+1.0	-0.5	+0.6	-0.6	-0.5	+1.5	+0.1

Matt Chapman is a bit worse vs right-handed pitching. George Kirby is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Chapman has a D+ grade vs this particular release point.

George Kirby throws a 4-seam fastball 40% of the time. Matt Chapman has a C- grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

40%

Slider (R)

22%

Sinker (R)

19%

Curve (R)

Splitter (R)

12% of George Kirby's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Matt Chapman has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 12%

+3%

Edge Painter 19%

+2%

Mid Challenge 13%

+2%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Chaser 6%

+0%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Likely Ball 17%

-2%

Meatball 3%

-3%

Non-Competitive 8%

-4%

26% of George Kirby's pitches are classified as Very Fast Velocity, which is 18% higher than the MLB average. Matt Chapman has a D- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Very Fast Velo 26%

+18%

Medium Break 18%

+9%

14.6% of Matt Chapman's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.0% lower than the league average. George Kirby strikes out 15.6% of the batters he faces, which is 0.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout 0.0% +0.5% 3%

Walk +2.1% -5.1% 40%

In Play -2.1% +4.6% 39%

On Base +0.7% -3.9% 31%

Hit -1.4% +1.2% 14%

Single -1.8% +0.5% 13%

2B / 3B -1.8% +0.8% 3%

Home Run +2.2% -0.1%

27.2% of Matt Chapman's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 7.2% lower than the league average. George Kirby induces Standard Grounders at a 36.4% rate, which is 2.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt 0.0% -0.6% 34%

Standard Grounder -7.2% +2.0% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.7% +0.1% 14%

Low Screamer -2.0% -1.4% 9%

Rising Liner -0.2% -2.7% 4%

Maybe Homer +2.7% -0.9% 3%

Likely Homer +0.6% -0.6% 1%

No Doubter +0.9% -1.1% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.8% +3.1% 3%

Pop up +2.7% +2.1%

36.0% of Matt Chapman's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 11.6% higher than the league average. 22.6% of batted balls allowed by George Kirby are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -6.0% -4.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph -3.9% +3.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph -2.2% +2.3% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.4% +0.7% 24%

Above 100 mph +11.6% -1.7%

11.8% of Matt Chapman's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.4% higher than the league average. 12.5% of batted balls allowed by George Kirby are hit at this angle, which is 1.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -1.8% +2.1% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.7% +2.2% 8%

1 to 6° -1.0% -1.2% 18%

7 to 18° -2.7% -5.3% 15%

19 to 28° -0.1% -1.8% 11%

29 to 38° +0.4% +1.0% 7%

39 to 50° -0.2% +1.0% 8%

Above 50° +6.1% +1.9%

Matt Chapman has 6 plate appearances against George Kirby in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 5 with a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	5	2	0	0	2	1	1	0.400
Expected From Contact →			2.22	0.00	0.26	1.96			0.444

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-08-24	Groundout			19%	80%
2024-08-24	Sac Fly		22%	68%	10%
2024-08-24	Single			47%	52%
2022-10-08	Walk
2022-07-08	Single		3%	61%	36%
2022-07-08	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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