Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Matt Chapman

matchup for Hunter Greene

295th out of 436 (Worst 33%)

Hunter Greene

matchup for Matt Chapman

503rd out of 567 (Worst 11%)

Moderate advantage for Greene

Matt Chapman has a 27.9% chance of reaching base vs Hunter Greene, which is 4.7% lower than Chapman's typical expectations, and 1.0% higher than batters facing Greene.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	27.9%	16.7%	3.4%	3.8%	9.5%	11.2%	32.9%
Chapman	-4.7	-4.8	+0.1	-0.8	-4.1	+0.1	+7.2
Greene	+1.0	-0.3	+0.5	+0.0	-0.8	+1.3	+0.4

Matt Chapman is worse vs right-handed pitching. Hunter Greene is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Chapman has a C+ grade vs this particular release point.

Hunter Greene throws a 4-seam fastball 55% of the time. Matt Chapman has a C- grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

55%

Slider (R)

38%

14% of Hunter Greene's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Matt Chapman has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 14%

+3%

Strong Challenge 7%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+0%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Weak Challenge 6%

-2%

Meatball 3%

-3%

32% of Hunter Greene's pitches are classified as Extreme Fast Velocity, which is 29% higher than the MLB average. Matt Chapman has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Fast Velo 32%

+29%

Large Break 37%

+16%

Medium Ride 27%

+14%

Breaking (R) 39%

+8%

15.0% of Matt Chapman's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.7% higher than the league average. Hunter Greene strikes out 19.5% of the batters he faces, which is 7.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout +0.7% +7.7% 4%

Walk +1.9% +0.5% 41%

In Play -2.5% -8.2% 39%

On Base +0.2% -6.1% 31%

Hit -1.6% -6.6% 14%

Single -1.6% -3.2% 13%

2B / 3B -1.9% -3.1% 3%

Home Run +1.9% -0.3%

27.1% of Matt Chapman's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 7.3% lower than the league average. Hunter Greene induces Standard Grounders at a 29.8% rate, which is 4.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt 0.0% -0.2% 34%

Standard Grounder -7.3% -4.6% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.7% -2.5% 14%

Low Screamer -2.0% -0.9% 9%

Rising Liner -0.2% -3.8% 4%

Maybe Homer +2.7% -1.8% 3%

Likely Homer +0.6% -0.7% 1%

No Doubter +0.9% +1.7% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.9% +8.3% 3%

Pop up +2.7% +4.5%

35.9% of Matt Chapman's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 11.6% higher than the league average. 20.1% of batted balls allowed by Hunter Greene are hit at above 100 mph, which is 4.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -6.0% +2.0% 21%

75 to 86 mph -3.9% +2.3% 18%

87 to 93 mph -2.3% +0.8% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.6% -1.0% 24%

Above 100 mph +11.6% -4.2%

11.9% of Matt Chapman's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.4% higher than the league average. 12.9% of batted balls allowed by Hunter Greene are hit at this angle, which is 1.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -1.9% -2.6% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.8% -1.3% 8%

1 to 6° -1.0% -4.7% 18%

7 to 18° -2.6% -3.2% 15%

19 to 28° -0.1% -3.7% 11%

29 to 38° +0.4% +1.4% 7%

39 to 50° -0.1% +5.9% 8%

Above 50° +6.0% +8.0%

Matt Chapman has 9 plate appearances against Hunter Greene in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 9 with 5 strikeouts.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	9	9	1	0	0	1	5	0	0.111
Expected From Contact →			1.01	0.00	0.01	1.00			0.112

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2025-03-27	Strikeout
2025-03-27	Pop Out
2024-08-03	Strikeout
2024-08-03	Flyout				99%
2023-08-20	Groundout			6%	94%
2023-08-20	Strikeout
2022-05-21	Strikeout
2022-05-21	Strikeout
2022-05-21	Single			94%	5%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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