Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Matt Chapman

matchup for Zac Gallen

319th out of 436 (Worst 27%)

Zac Gallen

matchup for Matt Chapman

305th out of 567 (Worst 46%)

Moderate advantage for Chapman

Matt Chapman has a 35.1% chance of reaching base vs Zac Gallen, which is 1.9% higher than Chapman's typical expectations, and 2.3% higher than batters facing Gallen.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	35.1%	19.6%	2.9%	4.8%	11.8%	15.5%	30.7%
Chapman	+1.9	-1.4	-0.2	+0.2	-1.3	+3.3	+6.0
Gallen	+2.3	-1.4	+0.1	-0.3	-1.3	+3.8	+0.4

Matt Chapman is a bit worse vs right-handed pitching. Zac Gallen is right handed with an extreme release toward the third base side. Chapman has a B- grade vs this particular release point.

Zac Gallen throws a 4-seam fastball 49% of the time. Matt Chapman has a C- grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

49%

Kn-Curve (R)

23%

Changeup (R)

14%

Cutter (R)

10%

22% of Zac Gallen's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Matt Chapman has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 22%

+2%

Chaser 8%

+2%

Fringe Miss 14%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Strong Challenge 5%

+0%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Weak Challenge 7%

-1%

Meatball 5%

-2%

Non-Competitive 9%

-4%

25% of Zac Gallen's pitches are classified as Small Break Toward Third Base, which is 16% higher than the MLB average. Matt Chapman has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Small Break 25%

+16%

Extreme Drop 19%

+14%

Medium Fast Velo 24%

+8%

14.6% of Matt Chapman's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.0% lower than the league average. Zac Gallen strikes out 17.8% of the batters he faces, which is 3.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout 0.0% +3.5% 3%

Walk +2.1% -0.3% 40%

In Play -2.1% -3.2% 39%

On Base +0.7% -1.8% 31%

Hit -1.4% -1.5% 14%

Single -1.8% -0.9% 13%

2B / 3B -1.8% -0.5% 3%

Home Run +2.2% -0.1%

27.2% of Matt Chapman's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 7.2% lower than the league average. Zac Gallen induces Standard Grounders at a 32.4% rate, which is 2.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt 0.0% +0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder -7.2% -2.0% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.7% +1.6% 14%

Low Screamer -2.0% +1.7% 9%

Rising Liner -0.2% -1.4% 4%

Maybe Homer +2.7% +0.9% 3%

Likely Homer +0.6% -0.2% 1%

No Doubter +0.9% -0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.8% +0.8% 3%

Pop up +2.7% -1.3%

36.0% of Matt Chapman's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 11.6% higher than the league average. 26.3% of batted balls allowed by Zac Gallen are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -6.0% -0.7% 21%

75 to 86 mph -3.9% -1.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph -2.2% +0.0% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.4% +0.6% 24%

Above 100 mph +11.6% +2.0%

11.8% of Matt Chapman's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.4% higher than the league average. 10.6% of batted balls allowed by Zac Gallen are hit at this angle, which is 0.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -1.8% -0.9% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.7% +0.6% 8%

1 to 6° -1.0% -0.8% 18%

7 to 18° -2.7% +1.0% 15%

19 to 28° -0.1% +0.9% 11%

29 to 38° +0.4% -0.9% 7%

39 to 50° -0.2% +1.1% 8%

Above 50° +6.1% -1.1%

Matt Chapman has 5 plate appearances against Zac Gallen in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 5 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.41	0.00	0.01	0.40			0.082

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-09-25	Groundout			9%	91%
2024-09-25	Forceout			7%	92%
2024-09-25	Strikeout
2023-07-15	GIDP			7%	93%
2023-07-15	Groundout			18%	82%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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